A cautionary note about the excitement over the polls showing Bernie up, way up over

[Babel_17]

17. The longer they reside inside The Biden Zone

The longer they reside inside The Biden Zone, the unlikelier it becomes they'll reenter the Clinton tent.

While inside The Biden Zone they're opening their ears wider to hearing the downside of supporting the Clinton campaign. It's partly why they are where they are, they didn't like what they were hearing. Not supporting the establishment candidate requires actively swimming against the tide. To start supporting Clinton means reconciling your existing objections before you can do that.

I'm not seeing any lure, any hook, to draw Biden supporters into the Clinton tent.

On the other hand, they had a perfectly good upstart they could have turned to initially, namely Senator Sanders, but they didn't do that. So the resistance to that needs examination. Some are just going to be disposed to someone more traditional, and some are going to see him as an improbable long shot.

But basically they're all Democrats who are paying attention, and who aren't content with the status quo. And that's a group that Sanders is doing very well with. As Sanders gets more attention, and is portrayed as being more plausible, Biden voters will likely wonder who values their vote more, who is actually out there fighting to win it.

I was reading how some of President Obama's financial supporters were talking among themselves about how they didn't feel their support would be appreciated by the Clinton campaign. They felt like they wouldn't be making a difference. I'm assuming they got a different feeling when donating to the Obama campaign.

These early primaries and caucuses are on the intimate side. I think that Biden supporters will see acquaintances who've switched to Clinton, and acquaintances who've switched to Sanders. I'm guessing that the vibe of those who switched to Sanders will be, by far, the more contagious one.