I live in Iowa, and believe me, I've seen this play out before in 2008.
If you look at comparable poll numbers from Fall 2007 and Fall 2015 (roughly 5 months before the Iowa caucuses), you see that Obama was doing WORSE against Clinton (in 2007) than Bernie is doing against Clinton (today).
Bernie is within 7 points. At this point in the Iowa caucuses, Hillary was ahead by a wider margin and Obama was third, behind Edwards.
Clinton has lost 20 points in Iowa, since May. Her campaign is free falling in Iowa.
Clinton has a great deal of history in the state of Iowa. We remember her VERY WELL from the last time she ran for President. She was a very canned, corporate and cold campaigner. She seemed unwilling to connect and engage with Iowa voters in 2008. She refused to take questions from Iowans and she left immediately after most of her impersonal speeches. That's just not how it's done here. We take our first-in-the-nation status seriously and we demand to speak with the candidates, ask them questions and have discussions with them. Most candidates, Democrats and Republicans, make themselves very available to us. It's actually a lot of fun--serious fun.
Clinton was the only candidate who seemed unwilling to engage with us. When she was criticized for being distant and when it became apparent that her polls were tanking (late Fall 2007) she started speaking at smaller venues and she even had a town-hall meeting with a Q&A session. Turns out, her questioners were her staffers armed with planted questions. Iowans didn't really appreciate that.
Also, after Clinton came in third in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, she criticized our caucuses and the process, the second she left our state. The Iowa caucuses are the most democratic process you can imagine. Precinct members meets in living rooms, high-school libraries, community halls--and we discuss the candidates. People speak and tout their candidates of choice. Then we divide into camps--according to who we are supporting. Then we vote by show of hands. The counts are tallied and several people call in the numbers to the central office. Seriously…it's amazing!
Iowans remember Hillary and her missteps the last time around. She could have made up some lost ground, but thus far, her campaign has been the same impersonal, canned shtick of 2008. Maybe worse. Hillary was a great diplomat and a wonderful SOS. I don't think she has it in her to connect to average people.
Bernie has the momentum now. She's lost so much ground and the big story here is that any big advantages she had in the summer, have eroded.
Again--At this time, during 2007--Obama was doing WORSE against Clinton--than Sanders is against her now. I don't see any way that she wins Iowa. Iowa may not mean everything, but it is the first state to vote, and Sanders will win NH. Winning the first two states will give Sanders big momentum going into SC.
The DNC and the DLC must be eating Tums by the barrel full.
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