HMMMMMMMMMMM

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Arizona needs fewer conservatives

Interesting state. Evolving state. The early polling often has trouble capturing true mood in an evolving state, because the template is out of date. That's why I wouldn't put full stock in a poll like this.

It is true that Arizona has more Republicans than Democrats (32-28 in 2016), which is opposite of most swing states. But there are high number of liberals -- 27% in the 2016 Arizona exit poll. Once I saw that 27% a day or two after the 2016 election I was amazed and encouraged. In the 26 years I have been following this, Arizona 2016 was the first state to ever report more conservatives than the national average and also more liberals than the national average. There are a high number of registered independents in Arizona but they aren't shy about listing an ideology, when asked, at least compared to the trend elsewhere.

The 40% conservatives still makes Arizona an unlikely state in a 50/50 environment. It would need to drop to 37% or thereabouts before we could be expected to pick off Arizona in a dead even race. It is similar to Virginia maybe a dozen years ago in that regard, and more recently Nevada. In those states I didn't fret the bottom line as much as how many people were calling themselves conservative.