Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I switched back to Kamala [View all]Garrett78
(10,721 posts)If Sanders loses New Hampshire, he's done. But even if he wins New Hampshire, the road gets exceedingly difficult for him following that primary. After Super Tuesday, he'll essentially be eliminated, just as he was in 2016.
I agree that the potential is there for a lot of vote-splitting in California. I also think it's possible that Harris will win CA by a wide margin. And we may be down to fewer than 5 candidates on Super Tuesday.
The "conventional wisdom" regarding Biden may not be as conventional as you believe. Read this: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/campaigns/article226007090.html. The only reason anyone thinks Biden is a good option is because he was Obama's VP (look no further than Biden's previous attempts to get nominated; pre-Obama Biden was never considered a good option). Otherwise, nobody would be promoting a 76-year-old with a penchant for gaffes and a good deal of baggage. Time will tell if having been Obama's VP and this narrative about needing to nominate a white male will carry Biden to the nomination. I think it's possible and consider Biden's odds better than most, but I think it's far from a guarantee.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided