Joe Biden Has the Most to Lose at the Debates

[MineralMan]

2. Or Vice-Versa

Joe Biden also has a good chance of picking up supporters at the debates. If so, most of them will come from candidates who are faring poorly in the early campaigning, going to the debate with just a couple of percentage points in the polls.

There's also a good chance that second, third, and fourth place in the polls may shift around somewhat. Probably the most effect will be seen between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are competing for voters with similar concerns. There's a fair chance that Sanders will lose some supporters to Warren. Sanders' debating style is not always conducive to attracting supporters. That raises the possibility that both will drop below the 15% level in polling. That would risk them getting no delegates at all in some states.

And then there are Buttigieg and Harris. Good performances by them might also rob from Sanders and Warren, making the race for second tighter. Again, there is a risk of nobody having more than 15% of support going into the actual primaries and caucuses.

While Biden might have the most to lose, a good performance by him could lead to a lockout of everyone else, at least in some states, with all delegates being pledged to Biden in any state where nobody but him gets more than 15% of the vote.

Tense times, I'd think, and more for the second place position on down than at the top.