Democratic Convention Rules

[uawchild]

10. Interesting points, but lets look forward...

The trend line seems to be that Warren will also move way above the 15% threshold when the field thins out.

I see Liz eventually getting more delegates than Bernie actually. She will certainly be above the 15% cutoff by the time of the first caucus and primaries.

For the entire primary campaign, what seems most probable to me is this:

Biden maintains his core support in the 40-45% range
Warren comes on strong and also gets around 40%
Sanders, being Sanders, doesn't drop out even when it's clear he can't get more than, say, 15-20% of the delegates.

This would force a second ballot at the convention.

Sander's has a following and he has the money to stay in until the end to push for his positions. He has the crusading type personality to want to do that too.

I know, I know... second ballots never happen. But it sure seems at least possible that a second ballot might happen in 2020.

Hey, it will be interesting to see what shakes out.