The Morning Consult Poll... The UAWCHILD Analysis! [View all]

[uawchild]

Last edited Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:32 AM - Edit history (1)

I know you all have been waiting for this, so here's probably the most insightful analysis of this weeks Morning Consult Poll results you will find on the web, wait, did I just call the internet "the web"?

Good lord, that makes me sound as old as our leading candidates... Never mind, here is the analysis:

The Biden bounce is over, but he's still at 37%.
For the third week in a row he's lost 1%. How low will he go?
When will he start to gain ground again?


Warren's rise seems unstoppable.
She gained again and is at 11% now and is the only person with a consistent trend upwards in the entire poll.
She's creeping up slowly to Join Biden and Sanders in the 15% cutoff for delegates club.
Will she pass Bernie at 19% and head even further up?

Bernie held steady at 19% while Biden lost ground this week.
Many many people will claim pointing this out makes me some sort of stealth Sanders supporter.
Will Bernie close ground or is ~20% his ceiling this year?

The Take-Away:

If these trends hold, I will be able to claim I am some sort of political genius when Biden, Warren and Sanders take it to The Brokered Convention 2020!

Yeah, that's right, I am calling it early! No candidate is going to get a majority on the first ballot this year. The big three and probably Harris with all her California Delegates will be starring at a brokered convention in 2020.

Wooo! Yeah, baby.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/