Elizabeth Warren Quietly Moves Into Second Place

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Polls showed Hillary leading...

National polls are only half the picture here - and Warren's total against Trump is less than Biden's, Sanders' and Harris' lead. That is problematic when you factor in her name recognition (I absolutely believe she is more well-known than Harris nationally). It's a good starting point, and if Warren leads Trump nationally by seven points in a collection of polls, absolutely, that will make me feel better. But this poll seems extremely favorable to the Democrats, so, I am unsure if any candidate leads by that wide of margin.

Thing is, as we saw in 2016, national polls are nice - but they don't mean a lick if the Democrats can't win back the three states they lost to Trump. This is where I feel 'MOE' will factor the heaviest.

In Pennsylvania, in the last Quinnipiac Poll, Warren led Trump by just three-points. In that same poll, Biden led Trump by eleven. Warren did do better than Harris (by three) and Buttigieg by two - but again, she's probably more well-known than either.

In Michigan, the last poll there (May) had Warren up 4. That same poll had Biden winning by twelve. In fact, Warren actually did worse in this poll than Buttigieg, but better than Harris (by a point).

I am cool if Warren wins - and wins this by four-points across the board ... but four-points is dangerously close and after 2016, I won't feel comfortable with a lead like that in two states the Democrats NEED to win.

Now it's early, and Warren could see her poll positioning improve greatly. But right now? Going off what facts I have, it is a valid concern for me - whether you believe so or not.