Democratic Primaries

FBaggins

(28,773 posts)

43. Sorry... you have a serious case of confirmation bias

Mon Jun 17, 2019, 01:53 PM

Jun 2019

Subsequent polls after that comment had Biden at "33,33,38,36,32,38,35" .. clearly NOT deteriorating.

Compared to 39,38,44,40,46,39 that immediately preceded that string... yes, there was clear deterioration.

Then Joe had a relatively bad week with a couple of missteps

Sorry. His polling average has lost ten total points since his post-announcement peak. He had already lost seven of those ten points when you were trying to tell me that things were not deteriorating. He's lost only half that much since there. You can't spin that as stable up until 5/23 and then "had a bad week".

As I pointed out at the time. The site that the OP referred to has a very convenient graph. It's clear that the story is "big bounce from an announcement that almost as quickly subsided back to where he was"... it is NOT "bounce that was 'real and lasting'" NOR is it "Boucne that WAS lasting until he had a bad week".

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Highlight:

Three New Polls Prove the Biden Bump is Real and Lasting -- and Republicans are Nervous [View all] Vidal May 2019 OP

There is no poll in the entire world that can prove anyone's lead is a lasting one this far out. mtnsnake May 2019 #1

But, "it's only Cha May 2019 #2

Too many people see him for who he really is comradebillyboy May 2019 #10

Exactly! And, Thank Cha May 2019 #11

I agree Vidal May 2019 #13

Biden has the President Obama's Cha May 2019 #14

Agree Vidal May 2019 #16

I feel most of the candidates privately concede Biden will be the pick. Chipper Chat May 2019 #3

I will be 88 in 2028 and would love to see Chipper Chat May 2019 #4

You say that you just looked at the RCP tracking FBaggins May 2019 #5

Biden DownriverDem May 2019 #7

That RCP graph is misleading. honest.abe May 2019 #9

You've missed the burden of proof FBaggins May 2019 #15

You've missed the numbers. honest.abe May 2019 #17

Thank you! Vidal May 2019 #18

Yes, agreed. I really dont see how anyone closes that gap. honest.abe May 2019 #19

Not at all. I may just be better at reading them FBaggins May 2019 #23

LOL.. you are trying too hard. honest.abe May 2019 #26

How about now? FBaggins Jun 2019 #33

LOL.. still trying! honest.abe Jun 2019 #34

What happened to "I am referencing Biden actual poll numbers, not his "lead" over Sanders. " FBaggins Jun 2019 #36

You do realize polling numbers fluctuate?? honest.abe Jun 2019 #38

Lol... that was the point of my initial reply FBaggins Jun 2019 #39

If you recall I wasn't defending the OP, I was challenging your claim.. honest.abe Jun 2019 #40

Then why post at all at this point? FBaggins Jun 2019 #41

Because you are wrong once again. honest.abe Jun 2019 #42

Sorry... you have a serious case of confirmation bias FBaggins Jun 2019 #43

You are trying way too hard to make a meaningless insignificant point. honest.abe Jun 2019 #44

"I may just be better at reading them" in a way which better suits your narrative. LanternWaste Jun 2019 #35

That's an odd reply... FBaggins Jun 2019 #37

I sure hope his lead holds DownriverDem May 2019 #6

Good news! Turin_C3PO May 2019 #8

Excellent point.. not drag Cha May 2019 #12

I agree witht that...we don't need people who can't win to beat up our nominee in the primary. Demsrule86 May 2019 #20

JOEmentum!! Partisan D May 2019 #21

Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available Gothmog May 2019 #22

And, the reason is.. Cha May 2019 #28

I wonder if part of Biden's appeal is what we want to believe about ourselves. nolabear May 2019 #24

K&R Scurrilous May 2019 #25

I do love me some Joe. nt Maru Kitteh May 2019 #27

Have you seen this, Vidal? Cha May 2019 #29

But ... but .... NYMinute May 2019 #30

Wow.. I didn't even Cha May 2019 #31

No I didn't Vidal May 2019 #32