Democratic Primaries

marylandblue

(12,344 posts)

35. The odds also reflect other factors that polls can't account for.

Sun Jun 30, 2019, 12:45 PM

Jun 2019

Like some of the informed judgements needed to decide future performance. Right now, the only thing the gamblers really agree on is that there is no true front runner. All these people who think they know who the winner will be can make a fortune on the betting market. So why don't they?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Harris has already slipped 5 pts in the Morning Consult poll since their poll taken after the debate [View all] highplainsdem Jun 2019 OP

How does the Morning Consult Poll select their responders? bluewater Jun 2019 #1

They probably have a prescreened panel and use a continuous survey Dream Girl Jun 2019 #28

Funny, this poll says she's up. Joe is as well against Sanders. brush Jun 2019 #91

She came off as a fighter but the fight was against Biden flamingdem Jun 2019 #2

Sad DownriverDem Jun 2019 #22

I think it will be fine dawg day Jun 2019 #32

Totally agree. Dahvia Jun 2019 #94

Maybe the merch wasn't such a good idea. ucrdem Jun 2019 #3

The t-shirt was a disastrous idea, judging by most of the reactions I saw on Twitter, highplainsdem Jun 2019 #4

It pissed me off for sure. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #15

lol, polls are nothing but propaganda tools, watoos Jun 2019 #5

It turns out they weren't expecting a strong defense ucrdem Jun 2019 #8

That's exactly what I saw! Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #27

Yep. He zipped it. You could see he wanted to say more but employed remarkable restraint Dream Girl Jun 2019 #30

Yep no way the hosts were going to referee that one. ucrdem Jun 2019 #34

I've never seen anyone dismiss polls as a propaganda tool if their candidate was doing well highplainsdem Jun 2019 #12

Depends on the poll, Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #24

How far DownriverDem Jun 2019 #25

Your opinion is not fact. It's an opinion. Perhaps you might rephrase that. hedda_foil Jun 2019 #43

We don't have to rephrase anything...I will say that I think Biden is the only one who can Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #46

Biden's administration would hit the ground running minutes oasis Jun 2019 #61

Yes the administration would and by taking three states he stops Trump...WI, PA and MI. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #67

They all would do that. Obama did that. Even Trump did that, but he tripped. marylandblue Jun 2019 #82

Trump did that? It was a disaster then, and now. oasis Jun 2019 #83

Yes, Trump is incompetent. But for all the Democratic candidates, marylandblue Jun 2019 #84

It's been a problem with Biden supporters on DU. marylandblue Jun 2019 #57

That is your opinion and why is it a problem for Biden supporters to post their honest opinions? But Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #74

Because, in general. Biden supporters state their opinions as if they were facts, marylandblue Jun 2019 #81

538 one of the most respected polls in the nation has joined forced with morningconsult Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #36

So the takeaway is that one candidate has a net gain while the other has a net loss. Kaleva Jun 2019 #6

The takeaway is that one candidate's much-vaunted post-debate bump declined by more than highplainsdem Jun 2019 #9

You can't necessarily equate the two polls (the new one and the one where Biden was down 10) thesquanderer Jun 2019 #23

Coul the 8 point bounce have been taken among viewers of the debates? Dream Girl Jun 2019 #39

here is the methodology behind that specific 538/MC poll (you are correct, as it is separate from Celerity Jun 2019 #72

She lost most of her net gain...And what about the Church story gaining traction on the internet? Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #14

Harris lost some of more her net gain and opened herself up to more scrutiny katmondoo Jun 2019 #19

Agree! It was not her best look.. or a presidential one Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #37

I don't disagree. And I always like her didn't support her in the primaries because I believe Biden Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #48

Yep. That's what happens. The long knives are going to be out. nt Kahuna7 Jun 2019 #51

please see post #23 (corrected number) thesquanderer Jun 2019 #33

More there. 58Sunliner Jun 2019 #70

Turned folks off DownriverDem Jun 2019 #26

Exactly -- but you're not supposed to see or point that out. KPN Jul 2019 #99

Interesting! peggysue2 Jun 2019 #7

These polls are going to oscillate quite a bit for months. The Velveteen Ocelot Jun 2019 #10

I agree. But at the moment the only real data points on how well candidates are doing are polls, highplainsdem Jun 2019 #11

Gambling odds are informative, too. Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #20

The odds also reflect other factors that polls can't account for. marylandblue Jun 2019 #35

Well, they give Trump the clear advantage, sad to say. Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #52

Yeah, well he has gone up in the last few months. That is unfortunate. marylandblue Jun 2019 #55

So if someone you don't like is ahead, there's a problem with the entity.... Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #69

I have NO idea what you are talking about. marylandblue Jun 2019 #95

Exactly. MineralMan Jun 2019 #18

Haha...that explains the new desperate OP about Gay discrimination... Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #13

E Warren (-1) ? Iliyah Jun 2019 #16

Joe Biden maintains a double-digit lead. MineralMan Jun 2019 #17

I'm not sure whether or not Harris was right to do what she did. But... thesquanderer Jun 2019 #29

I think he'll probably figure out the best approach to respond to such MineralMan Jun 2019 #31

+1000. He needs better answers, and it's odd he or his staff can't come up with them. marylandblue Jun 2019 #40

I don't blame his staff for his not having comebacks for criticisms of... thesquanderer Jun 2019 #42

Yes, he does have to be able to think on his feet better. marylandblue Jun 2019 #45

I think the media and other candidates will continue the attacks which are mostly unfair...and he Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #49

We'll see. Negative campaigning is used because it works. marylandblue Jun 2019 #53

The media should not join in the mudslinging against any candidate...But will say that Harris hurt Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #58

"The media should not..." marylandblue Jun 2019 #63

I don't doubt that...but it is still wrong. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #65

They don't bother complaining about it. The media is not kind to Biden because he says things marylandblue Jun 2019 #68

IMHO only.. Biden was being respectful of another dem and didn't go into attack mode for that Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #41

He didn't need to attack Harris. He needed to better explain his position. thesquanderer Jun 2019 #44

That would have been a good answer. It would laid the whole thing to rest and marylandblue Jun 2019 #47

I don't consider busing a problem...and I would not even mention it again... Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #50

He needed to explain a 50 year old failed policy on busing... in 90 seconds...OK Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #59

I typed a 15 second answer that would have been sufficient to avoid the dust-up. thesquanderer Jun 2019 #62

No way it would have been that simple...it was a pre-planned contrived attack...and it opened the Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #66

+1000 Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #38

Hillary had a double-digit lead over Obama in 2007 bluewater Jun 2019 #71

There were only two candidates... Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #75

I posted the poll results showing the candidates bluewater Jun 2019 #77

Obama pulled ahead in a much smaller field who mostly left the primary Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #78

Tell you what... bluewater Jun 2019 #80

That's correct. MineralMan Jun 2019 #76

Sorry, but Ms. Harris does Polly Hennessey Jun 2019 #79

This message was self-deleted by its author thesquanderer Jun 2019 #21

Great news! Uniters will always prevail against dividers. democratisphere Jun 2019 #54

Amen to that!! Peacetrain Jun 2019 #56

True that. Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #60

An interesting article about her roots in SF. 58Sunliner Jun 2019 #64

Thanks! I hadn't seen it, and I'm curious about what you found most interesting about it. highplainsdem Jun 2019 #73

What struck me, smack in the face, was Hallinan. 58Sunliner Jul 2019 #96

I wonder why? Seriously.. it would Cha Jun 2019 #85

I think some of the decline might be due to people discovering her attack on Biden had been highplainsdem Jun 2019 #86

Ah yes.. the immediate aftermath Cha Jun 2019 #88

What struck me most was Tom Nichols -- one of the most influential NeverTrumpers, and someone highplainsdem Jun 2019 #90

I actually saw that Cha Jun 2019 #93

Good. Dahvia Jun 2019 #87

I feel the same way. I have no time for that sort of thing. Claritie Pixie Jun 2019 #89

She definitely made a huge mistake: Dahvia Jun 2019 #92

That kind of attack on another Raine Jul 2019 #98

Good! nt Raine Jul 2019 #97