Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: What, aside from wishful thinking, makes anyone think... [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)This is stuff I predicted in 2017. Properly applied generalities can absolutely dominate a day-to-day obsession with specifics.
Other sports bettors in Las Vegas were frustrated when I could do more with one generic angle than they could manage by painstakingly following every detail of every team. But I kept trying to tell them the generality approach was superior because it is not attempting to win 100% of the time. It is an easy way to be correct more often than not, with virtually no time expenditure. Conversely if you try to subjectively bob here and weave there, then the 50% threshhold is in major jeopardy, and you fall prey to your own biases while desperately attempting to justify the time expenditure and all the related sacrifice and stress.
Likewise, I'm sure everyone who followed the Mueller probe continually had to believe it would eventually reach Trump. In essence, they knew too much. Rachel Maddow flunks as prognosticator because she knows too much. I can just sit back and understand we have an atrocity as president but bottom line the system is not designed to deal with a snake in the White House, and incumbents own massive advantages toward re-election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden