New CNN Poll: Biden 22%; Harris 17%

[Celerity]

25. 2016 Sanders supporters versus 2020 Sanders supporters

The 2016 Sanders primary supporters' numbers.

Obviously the 3rd party voters were a far smaller percentage in 2016 (it was around 8%) as 23%
of his 13,206,428 (and that number is actually around 13.75 -14 million, as it does not include popular vote totals from Iowa Caucuses (he got 85,055), Maine Caucuses, which has only district reps vote (2,226), Nevada Caucuses (9571) , North Dakota Caucuses (difficult to guess as they have delegates vote, and he had 253 in the districts), Washington (401,452 votes total for Sanders), Wyoming, or non-binding primary Nebraska primary (he got 37,744 votes)

is around 3.2 million votes. Stein only got 1,457,216 total votes (1.07%) nationwide. Also obviously, not every single one of her votes was a Bernie Dem voter. I will give number below of the percentage of Sanders 2016 primary voters who defected en toto below, but it was probably around 5% (If HALF her totals were Bernie voters) to 7% (if a full 70% of her total votes were Bernie primary voters who went Stein.) My guess based off 2012 numbers for her is that it was around 6%, and that turns out to be very close, as you wil see in the data below.

The danger when people show the total number numbers of Stein voters in the close states and say, 'Look, if you take ALL her votes and give them to Clinton, Clinton would have won easily!' is that a large chunk of her total voters would never vote for anything but the Green Party candidate, they are never Democratic or Republican voters, except for the one-off freak candidacy of Bernie in the primaries. Again, the real danger for us this time, in 2020 is that THIS group of 2020 Bernie voters are far, far less Democratic (many very hostile to us in fact) and far, far more radical than he had in 2016, so the haemorrhage is going to be far greater than in 2016 I fear.

so now lets drill down further


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

How many Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump?

Two surveys estimate that 12 percent of Sanders voters voted for Trump. A third survey suggests it was 6 percent.

First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.

Schaffner examined only voters whose turnout in the primary and general election could be validated using voter file data. This excludes people who said they voted but actually did not — although it also excludes people who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries, for which validated turnout data are not as readily available.

Second, the same 12 percent figure emerges in the 2016 VOTER Survey, which was also conducted by YouGov and overseen by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (of which I am research director). In 2016, this survey interviewed 8,000 respondents in July, when they were asked their primary vote preference, and then in December, when they were asked their general election preference. This has the advantage of measuring primary preference closer to the primaries themselves and then tracking people over time. But their turnout in both elections has not been validated as of yet.

The third survey is the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey, which interviewed the same group of about 3,000 Americans six times during the campaign. Again, this survey has the advantage of tracking voters over time, but nobody’s turnout has been validated. Among voters who reported supporting Sanders as of March 2016, 6 percent then reported voting for Trump in November.

snip

I think the numbers of Bernie to Trump voters was probably around 10% overall (although I will show the numbers with 12% too). That 10% number is given here That link has a lot more data and goes into great depth, but at 10% Trump from Bernie defection rates, that would have swung the election to Hillary EXCEPT for one massive thing. The problem with saying those Berner to Trump voters made the diifrent completely ignores the Republican to Democratic switchers, as well. You cannot just pull out one set of switchers. Trump lost some support, too, of course. 34% of Kasich primary voters voted for Clinton. And 11% of Rubio primary voters did the same. Kasich had 4,290,448 votes, so 34% of that yields 1,458,752 Rethugs switching to Clinton, OR MORE than ALL of Bernie to Trump votes. Cruz had 7,822,100 Votes, so 11% of that yields 860,431 Rethug switches to Hillary. That is more votes than Bernie to Stein votes, or damn close. Next up is Rubio voters, who defected at a rate of 10%. Rubio had 3,515,576 votes, so that yields 351,558 Rehug to Hillary defections.

Add up those 3 numbers you get 2,670,741 Republican primary to Hillary general defection votes. That is just from THREE of losers, there were many other losing Repug smaller candidates who also had switchers to Clinton. The total was probably around 3 million Republican to Hillary switches.

If you take the 16% of Bernies 14 million primary votes (10% to Trump, 6% to Stein) that yields 2,240,000 Bernie to Trump defections, or far less than went the other way (Rethug to Clinton). In fact, lets say EVERY single Stein voter was a Bernie defector (Literally impossible in reality but lets do it just for fun). That yields 2,857,216 or so, which is still less than the total Rethug to Clinton total switches (counting all Repug primary voters).

I will now deal with last 2 categories. Non voters in the general and then the Gary Johnson general voters.

As for Sanders primary voters who didn't vote at all, it was only 3.5%. Hillary in 2008 had 5% of her primary voters not vote in the General. 5% of Republican primary voters didnt vote in the general.

A total of 8% went 3rd party from Bernie, so taking out Steins 6% (which I used in the calculation above) that leaves 2% who went to Johnson. That yields 280,000 votes. So the grand total of Bernie to other parties voters is 2,520,000 if you take the 10% to Trump number, or 2,800,000 if you give Trump a 12% Defection rate from Sanders primary. Still less than just Rethug primary voters who switched to Hillary. That is not even counting at all the Trump or any other candidates in the Rethug primary to Stein and especially Trump to Johnson switchers. Nor does it count the Rethug to Evan McMullin 732,273 votes (almost none came from Hillary or Bernie). Johnson took in a massive 4,489,233 votes. If only a third of the rate (so 4%, although I think it was higher, as he had 3 MILLION more votes than in 2012) defected from the Rethugs than did Bernie to Trump voters, that means Trump lost another 1,247,354 votes as there where 31,183,841 total votes cast in the Republican primaries.

That means over 5 MILLION defections from Trump to Hillary and 3rd parties, versus around 2.5m to 2.8 million defections away from Hillary via Bernie primary voters. Large net plus for Sec Clinton

The overall rate for Bernie primary voters who didnt vote for Sec Clinton and who voted for either Trump, Stein etc or didn't vote at all was 21.5% to 23.5% (depending if you give Trump 10 or 12% of their vote) versus a 30% defection/non vote rate from Obama for Hillary primary voters in 2008.




2020

5 Weird Items In The New Bernie-Buttigieg Poll (April 17)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/#7945897b7ddd

snip

No. 4: Only 42% of those who voted for Bernie in the 2016 Primary selected him as their top choice in the 2020 Primary.

Many assume that Bernie’s supporters from 2016 are a deeply loyal group, but it would appear that with more alternatives in 2020 (beyond Hillary Clinton) former Bernie voters have new top choices. For example, of Bernie’s 2016 supporters, 15.7% now selected Beto O’Rourke as their top choice, 11.7 % selected Joe Biden, 7.9% selected Pete Buttigieg and 6% selected Kamala Harris.

No. 3: 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.

While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.

No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.

This is just another example of the trend where Bernie's supporters appear to be incredibly loyal to just Bernie. Here, 21% of Bernie's supporters say that they would rather vote for President Trump than Pete Buttigieg, if given the binary choice. Perhaps many Bernie supporters would legitimately prefer Trump over most other Democrats. Perhaps Trump and Bernie have a similar, singular appeal to a certain subset of voters. While most Democratic primary voters would support Bernie in the general election if he were the nominee, it appears that some significant subset of Bernie’s supporters do not intend to reciprocate.

No. 1: Only 51% of current Bernie supporters actually voted in the 2016 General Election for the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton – 7% voted for Trump, 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 19% did not vote.

This result is the most difficult to interpret. Because nearly 30% of those who currently support Bernie say they voted for Trump or a third-party candidate in 2016, this statistic could support the claim that Bernie has crossover appeal and can expand on what Hillary was able to do in 2016. If 19% of non-voters now say that they would go to the polls for Bernie, it would support the narrative that Bernie can motivate many more people to go out and vote for a Democrat in 2020. If we take these potential voters at their word, it would appear to be a good sign for Bernie.

On the other hand, can we know for sure that such voters will actually pull the lever for Bernie in 2020, given that they were the same voters who, in 2016, were convinced to switch their vote to Trump or a third-party candidate, or convinced to not vote at all? Through the slog of negative advertising and attacks that will take place over the next 18 months in the run up to the Presidential Election, perhaps many of the current Bernie supporters will not actually remain motivated Bernie supporters until the end. Only time will tell.

snip



The 2020 underlying fundamentals buttressing the Sanders supporters demographics

These truly worry me. It is a petrol can looking for a swan vesta. So many structurally dissimilar metrics to 2016 in a negative way. A 40 to 45% (or higher) walk-away ratio, with a 25% or so possible straight to Trump vote quotient contained within that overall yield is not at all a good thing.

If Sanders captures 6 million votes (total raw votes in the primaries) and loses out on the nomination in a contentious manner (which his team may self-create), that (if the current statistical trend-lines hold true as his percentage of support scales up) extrapolates out to a direct defection rate (even with fewer overall votes captured) of around 1.5 million votes straight to Trump, and another 1 to 1.5 million to a 3rd party(s). That could be catastrophic. He simply must cement those new supporters to stay in-tent even if he fails to land the nomination. The onus is ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT on HIM and him alone to do that.

The more hostile a stance towards our overall Democratic Party apparatus he himself takes, the more he inculcates a defector mentality into the minds and ultimately the actionable intent of his baseline support to do just that, walk away.

It will become a self re-enforcing negative feedback loop that culminates in a viscous circle that truly raises the re-election chances of the monster orange bloat to a maddening degree.


end




Finally, here is a breakdown on Hillary primary voters in 2008 (who actually had a higher defection rate than Bernie's in 2016)

Around 30% total of Hillary 2008 primary voters did not vote for Obama in the general

around 24 or 25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote

https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130

https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.

An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)

Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.

snip

25% is almost triple the rate of Obama to McCain primary switches, and around double

the amount of McCain to Obama switches.

Also, look at the 'other' Dem primary voters, who had a horrific fall-off, a full 53% did not vote for Obama. 44% of those voted McCain and another 9% did not vote.

The Hillary primary voters and the 'other' Democratic primary voters fall-offs or outright switches positively dwarf the Republican defectors, who only had 13% switch to Obama and 4% non voters in terms of the McCain primary supporters, and then the 'other' Republican primary voters who switched even less, 9% voting for Obama and 4% who became non voters.

That last group of Democrats (the 'other' primary voters) defected at a rated over 400% greater than the same cohort for Republicans. If we had had those levels of defections in 2016 Trump would have probably won the popular vote (only a 1.1% switch from Hillary to the orange bloat gives him that) and won the Electoral College by as much as 350-188 (which, BTW, is the absolute MAX, perfect scenario ceiling for Trump in 2020 as well). That 350 is also OUR max possible in 2020 (that is giving us a few stretches, ie. AZ, GA, sweeping the closest swing states, and losing the not so close swingers, IA, MO, and OH) unless something huge blows up on Trump (which is a possibility always with that fuck).

snip


and before some says, oh, that was Rethugs in Operation Chaos, no, not really, those were actually really not a large percentage at all

Lets do a drill down

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rush_Limbaugh_Show#Operation_Chaos

Limbaugh started this around March 20, 2008, he urged Republicans to switch parties and vote for Hillary to tie up Obama

it only works in open primary states

It blew up in his face in one of the biggest (PA)

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24481603.html



so lets give Hillary 33% of 10% of the total vote

76,156 Republican switchers

She did win late deciders, but those were mostly Democrats





Next open primaries were also big states Ohio and Texas

let's give Hillary 75% of 10% of the total votes in the combined (I doubt it was that high but lets play this really in her favour of the Chaos concept)



385,544 Republican switcher votes

and the final 2 states that were part of Operation Chaos

Indiana and North Carolina (Obama won NC, but I will be just as generous as Texas in both)



211,749 Republican switcher votes for Hillary

that's it for Operation Chaos

so the total she gained was 673,449 Republican Operation Chaos-eligible Rethug voters for Clinton

now, she overall had



18,046,007 total votes (taking the largest possible number)

so at most 3.73% percent of Republican votes from Operation Chaos went to Hillary

subtract out the 5% who didnt vote in the general

3.54%

lets say 90% of those late switch Repug voters went back to MacCain (which is higher than the rate MCain Rethug primary voters switched to Obama, which was 87%)

yields a grand total of 3.19% (and this is being REALLY generous to Operation chaos, and assumes ALL of those, every one that was a Rehug late switcher, were game playing Operation Chaos voters)

so around 22% were actual defections from Hillary to McCain (I would guess the real number was probably 23.5 to 24%) and NOT part of Operation Chaos

depending on what stats you use for Sanders defections to Trump (I have see anywhere from 5% to 12%) that is a 183% to 480% (an average of 331.5%, but my gut says it was around 220% to 230%) HIGHER rate from Hillary voters to McCain in 2008 versus Berners in 2016 who flipped to the orange bloat.

All that said, we really have to worry about 2020. Given the stats I am seeing, if (more like when) Bernie loses our primary (especially if it is highly contentious and goes to multiple ballots) I can see 26%, 30%, or even higher bailing directly to Trump, let alone the Greens or just staying home, as his new base is FAR less Democratic now than it was in 2016. Many are super hostile to our party and the other candidates.


Hope all this helped!