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Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: What, aside from wishful thinking, makes anyone think... [View all]Gothmog
(177,342 posts)113. I am glad that all candidates will be vetted this cycle
Vetting is important https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/28/why-bernie-sanders-has-an-uphill-climb-ahead/?utm_term=.1b4f90c2a717
Finally, what happens when the oppo dump on Sanders comes? We have no idea, because it never happened in 2016. Clinton was so terrified of alienating his supporters and seeing them vote for Jill Stein in the general election (or not vote at all) that she tiptoed around him for pretty much the entirety of the primary campaign. That doesnt mean that hell be destroyed when stories about the more colorful aspects of his history start cropping up, but theres just no way to know.
Which is what we could say about the Sanders candidacy as a whole: Theres no way to know how its going to go. But hes got his work cut out for him.
Which is what we could say about the Sanders candidacy as a whole: Theres no way to know how its going to go. But hes got his work cut out for him.
See also https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-campaign-donald-trump/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2019-02-20T14%3A52%3A07&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social%C2%A0
2. How will he withstand more scrutiny and more attacks?
One of the secrets to Sanders' success in 2016 was that no one -- most especially Clinton -- thought he had any chance of going anywhere in the race. Clinton largely ignored him for the better part of 2015, allowing some problematic parts of Sanders' record for Democrats -- most notably his voting record on guns -- to go unnoticed. (When the race began to tighten, Clinton gently prodded Sanders on guns and health care.) Sanders, too, largely flew under the radar of investigative reporters for major news outlets who were busy looking into Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others seen as more viable candidates. (That reality clearly benefited Donald Trump in the early days of the campaign, as well.)
Sanders will get no pass -- from either the media or his fellow candidates -- this time around. He is among the frontrunners -- and will be treated as such. His wife's time as president of Burlington College could well come up. And his opponents will do a deep dive into his nearly 30 years of votes as a member of the House and Senate. This is all very normal stuff in a campaign. But not for Sanders.
One of the secrets to Sanders' success in 2016 was that no one -- most especially Clinton -- thought he had any chance of going anywhere in the race. Clinton largely ignored him for the better part of 2015, allowing some problematic parts of Sanders' record for Democrats -- most notably his voting record on guns -- to go unnoticed. (When the race began to tighten, Clinton gently prodded Sanders on guns and health care.) Sanders, too, largely flew under the radar of investigative reporters for major news outlets who were busy looking into Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and others seen as more viable candidates. (That reality clearly benefited Donald Trump in the early days of the campaign, as well.)
Sanders will get no pass -- from either the media or his fellow candidates -- this time around. He is among the frontrunners -- and will be treated as such. His wife's time as president of Burlington College could well come up. And his opponents will do a deep dive into his nearly 30 years of votes as a member of the House and Senate. This is all very normal stuff in a campaign. But not for Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Who is the Harris person YOU are speaking of? The OP didn't say anything about Harris. My fear
pnwmom
Feb 2019
#64
He's been very dismissive of "identity politics" and the role racism played in Trump's so-called win
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#55
There won't be 10+ candidates for long. By Super Tuesday, maybe 5 or 6. If that.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#19
A person can stand no chance and cause harm. Those aren't mutually exclusive.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#15
I understand the concern, but here's why I don't think history will repeat itself, per se:
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#68
That's not really true. The reason we knew on Super Tuesday in 2016 that the race was over...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#18
It's not about thinking any candidate is the one. But it's simply not the case that...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#85
Yep, as I suggested in the post (#22) right above yours, a large field doesn't...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#120
I'm not talking about where one campaigns, nor am I talking about a general election campaign.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#45
Of course the first 2 states are where he's likely to do best. That's kind of the point.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#37
The last question in my OP is the most crucial. Media love can't overcome that.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#33
Even if Sanders isn't disliked, per se, he simply can't win without doing considerably better...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#48
I don't disagree. My point is Bernie is still the media's darling and the media
comradebillyboy
Feb 2019
#62
With a crowded field, it possible that EW, CB, KH, and AK split up the HRC and ex-Bernie vote
aikoaiko
Feb 2019
#42
And I responded to your post by pointing out that that's not how vote-splitting works.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#52
In 2016, there were people who still thought it was a horse race after Super Tuesday. It wasn't.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#58
It pretty much was that silly. Hundreds of posts from those in denial. I was here. I remember.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#61
And there's no reason to think he'll get any more this time. I don't know any Hillary voters
pnwmom
Feb 2019
#65
There seems to be this assumption that vote-splitting is a binary phenomenon.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#66
What reason is there to think he'd do considerably better among ANY group of Hillary voters,
pnwmom
Feb 2019
#74
And the Never Hillary voters aren't necessarily going to opt for Sanders in 2020.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#125
Frazzled said nothing of the kind, just that Bernie's donors won't determine the outcome.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#101
When I got that "if I run" email, I fell off my chair. It's as if "if" was equivocal.
George II
Feb 2019
#117
The betting odds which tend to be pretty accurate. Harris and Sanders are neck and neck
Quixote1818
Feb 2019
#79
We don't have winner-take-all primaries like the GOP does. And vote-splitting isn't...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#91
Just wanted to point out that the one block Sanders struggles with is white men
Quixote1818
Feb 2019
#94
The field will get much smaller after the first few primaries. If Sanders doesn't...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#96
Some people think he "deserves" to be the nominee because he lost last time
Runningdawg
Feb 2019
#95
Once the Mueller stuff fades, Trump's approval rating will automatically rebound
Awsi Dooger
Feb 2019
#103
He definitely got treated with kid gloves. And the media was actually quite favorable, contrary...
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#114
With two black candidates and several woman running he'll do much worse overall.
George II
Feb 2019
#115
As I said in post #22, I think he'll find it tougher to justify doing what he did last time.
Garrett78
Feb 2019
#123