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Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,420 posts)

2. The number of delegates can be significant according to 538

Reply to George II (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 29, 2019, 11:18 AM

Jul 2019

For example, they estimate that a candidate getting 8-14% support state wide could still end up getting between 1-5% of the delegates assigned.

For a large state like California that could be very significant and impact the national race for the nomination. Also, note from the chart below that getting 15% statewide does not mean a candidate would do above the 15% threshold in every district, and hence they would be assigned less than 15% in total.

In a close national race for the 2020 nomination, 3-5% of the total delegate count could shift the balance.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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15% Is Not A Magic Number For Primary Delegates [View all] bluewater Jul 2019 OP

Even in the districts the 15% rule applies. A few delegates might be won in districts, but not many George II Jul 2019 #1

The number of delegates can be significant according to 538 bluewater Jul 2019 #2

I remain hopeful that sanders will fail to reach the 300 delegate threshold Gothmog Jul 2019 #4

Yes the 15% rule applies to district delegates Gothmog Jul 2019 #3