Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(59,691 posts)

15. Interesting poll, but it looks as though it's weighted more toward younger voters and men

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 08:49 AM

Jul 2019

than the Democratic electorate overall.

Looking at other internals... Checking the question on preference in the primary, I see that Biden nearly ties O'Rourke (and is way ahead of all the other Dems) when Democrats were asked about their preference (26.5% O'Rourke, 24.4% Biden). Most of O'Rourke's advantage over Biden is from suppprt among independents (69.5%).

I'm looking at FiveThirtyEight's page on the Texas primary.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/texas/

This new poll looks like an outlier.

A YouGov poll in mid-July had Biden leading O'Rourke 27% to 17%.

An earlier YouGov poll from early June had Biden ahead of him 23% to 15%.

A Quinnipiac poll in early June (the highest rated poll there) had Biden leading O'Rourke 30% to 16%.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if any more state polls show O'Rourke doing this well.

That Quinnipiac poll in June had Biden the only Democrat beating Trump

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287140598

and in that poll O'Rourke lost to Trump, 45% to 48%.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Editing to add that the RCP Democratic primary poll average for Texas has Biden leading O'Rourke by more than 10 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html

and their page for Texas general election polls has Biden beating Trump by 2.5 points and O'Rourke losing to him by 1.5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Texas.html

O'Rourke still does better against Trump than any other Democrat except Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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*****Texas G.E. Beto 49% Trump 39%. No other Dem beats him by more than two***** [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 OP

That's got to be encouraging for BETO, who surely has needed something like this. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #1

If DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #2

I don't think that alone is sufficient, but it could propel his viability in other states. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #3

I am referring to the general. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #4

270. You are exactly right. crazytown Jul 2019 #6

If DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #10

I would have said so in 2016, but the dynamics are changing. crazytown Jul 2019 #13

He has to win the primary first. Texas votes on Super Tuesday. He'd stand a chance if he pulled in hlthe2b Jul 2019 #8

if ... IF Beto takes TX in the GE crazytown Jul 2019 #5

He has to win the prmary first.. Geez. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #9

One thing is certain. TX is tinged with purple. crazytown Jul 2019 #11

It is a promising finding, that's for sure. And now is the time to press Texas. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #12

I've been looking at the electoral map for many years crazytown Jul 2019 #14

WHEN Beto takes Texas Indygram Jul 2019 #17

I guess Beto will be the scumbag's next target now. secondwind Jul 2019 #7

Interesting poll, but it looks as though it's weighted more toward younger voters and men highplainsdem Jul 2019 #15

Those Independents can vote in the Texas primary and they decide general elections Indygram Jul 2019 #18

I'm aware that Texas has an open primary. But at this point this poll is still an outlier. It'll highplainsdem Jul 2019 #20

This poll backs up consistent canvassing Indygram Jul 2019 #22

The weighting of Independents could be driving differences in polls essadaw Jul 2019 #21

That's what his supporters have been trying to tell people, that lead is real, maybe bigger Indygram Jul 2019 #16

I drove through north Texas last month and spotted dozens of Beto bumper stickers dalton99a Jul 2019 #19

As much as I would love for Texas to go blue, his candidacy would efhmc Jul 2019 #23

But he didn't win his Senate election... Agschmid Jul 2019 #24

In Texas, Cruz is much more popular than Trump essadaw Jul 2019 #25

Thank you. Tipperary Jul 2019 #28

None of the other candidates would have gotten within 10-15 points of how close Beto got Indygram Jul 2019 #30

one, as I've said about all the other polls qazplm135 Jul 2019 #26

It's reason enough TexasAggieDemocrat12 Jul 2019 #27

Beto and Biden are the only sure bets in the Electoral College 5starlib Jul 2019 #29

Texas will be a battleground states Gothmog Jul 2019 #31