Sanders 3rd, Biden 4th in New, High-Quality California Poll [View all]

[bluewater]

That’s why it’s significant that the best-regarded Golden State poll, taken by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), is showing a turnabout in the nomination contest. Here’s PPIC’s terse summary of its findings:

Based on an open-ended question, the frontrunners are Kamala Harris (19%), Elizabeth Warren (15%), Bernie Sanders (12%), and Joe Biden (11%). Pete Buttigieg (5%) is the only other candidate supported by at least 5 percent, while 25 percent say they don’t know.

Most election preference polls utilize lists of candidates. An open-ended poll, requiring respondents to volunteer their favored candidate, is arguably more accurate, but if anything it puts a thumb on the scale for the better-known rivals. So the fact that the best-known candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, are running, respectively, fourth and third in this survey is a big and surprising development.

Harris’s lead in PPIC’s open-ended poll is, of course, good news for the Californian. She leads the field among self-identified liberals and moderates alike and in every major region. What this really means is that whoever comes steaming out of the early states with momentum will be in a position to win a lot of delegates in California. If PPIC’s findings are any indication, the state will not be any sort of firewall for Joe Biden if he stumbles in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or South Carolina. It could, in fact, represent the death knell for his campaign. But at this point Biden leads in all the four early states. He’d better do well before the contest splits to the Left Coast. There’s no comfort there for him.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/sanders-third-biden-fourth-in-high-quality-california-poll.html


This poll was just released by the 538 A rated Public Policy institute of California:

July 14–23, 2019
1,706 California Adult Residents:
English, Spanish
MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.4% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE

Disclaimer: This is an early poll. No single poll's results , especially one this early, should be over emphasized.