Democratic Primaries

essadaw

(185 posts)

21. The weighting of Independents could be driving differences in polls

Tue Jul 30, 2019, 10:56 AM

Jul 2019

In this poll, Beto is crushing it with Independents/Lean D. He wins them 69.5% in the democratic primary portion of the poll when Independents/Lean D are broken out (Bernie next at 8.4% and Biden at 5.1%) . With straight D, Beto still is the highest at 26.5% but not by much.

Since there is such huge differences in independents in this poll and seen by canvassing teams on the ground, how a pollster weighs independents vs. those with a history of voting in the democratic primary will make a difference in the results.

And this makes sense to me, since Beto came very close in Texas by getting support from unlikely sources --huge youth and POC turnout in a midterm and simultaneously winning over many independents and moderate Republicans. I would expect Biden's support to be based in Democratic party loyalists.

I look forward to more Texas polls. If we win Texas in the general, it is game over for Trump and a huge hit to the Republican party.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

31 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

*****Texas G.E. Beto 49% Trump 39%. No other Dem beats him by more than two***** [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 OP

That's got to be encouraging for BETO, who surely has needed something like this. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #1

If DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #2

I don't think that alone is sufficient, but it could propel his viability in other states. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #3

I am referring to the general. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #4

270. You are exactly right. crazytown Jul 2019 #6

If DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #10

I would have said so in 2016, but the dynamics are changing. crazytown Jul 2019 #13

He has to win the primary first. Texas votes on Super Tuesday. He'd stand a chance if he pulled in hlthe2b Jul 2019 #8

if ... IF Beto takes TX in the GE crazytown Jul 2019 #5

He has to win the prmary first.. Geez. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #9

One thing is certain. TX is tinged with purple. crazytown Jul 2019 #11

It is a promising finding, that's for sure. And now is the time to press Texas. hlthe2b Jul 2019 #12

I've been looking at the electoral map for many years crazytown Jul 2019 #14

WHEN Beto takes Texas Indygram Jul 2019 #17

I guess Beto will be the scumbag's next target now. secondwind Jul 2019 #7

Interesting poll, but it looks as though it's weighted more toward younger voters and men highplainsdem Jul 2019 #15

Those Independents can vote in the Texas primary and they decide general elections Indygram Jul 2019 #18

I'm aware that Texas has an open primary. But at this point this poll is still an outlier. It'll highplainsdem Jul 2019 #20

This poll backs up consistent canvassing Indygram Jul 2019 #22

The weighting of Independents could be driving differences in polls essadaw Jul 2019 #21

That's what his supporters have been trying to tell people, that lead is real, maybe bigger Indygram Jul 2019 #16

I drove through north Texas last month and spotted dozens of Beto bumper stickers dalton99a Jul 2019 #19

As much as I would love for Texas to go blue, his candidacy would efhmc Jul 2019 #23

But he didn't win his Senate election... Agschmid Jul 2019 #24

In Texas, Cruz is much more popular than Trump essadaw Jul 2019 #25

Thank you. Tipperary Jul 2019 #28

None of the other candidates would have gotten within 10-15 points of how close Beto got Indygram Jul 2019 #30

one, as I've said about all the other polls qazplm135 Jul 2019 #26

It's reason enough TexasAggieDemocrat12 Jul 2019 #27

Beto and Biden are the only sure bets in the Electoral College 5starlib Jul 2019 #29

Texas will be a battleground states Gothmog Jul 2019 #31