Democratic Primaries

Gothmog

(180,181 posts)

67. According to Nate Silver, I am not alone

Wed Mar 13, 2019, 08:43 PM

Mar 2019

From Nate Silver. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-and-bernies-support-isnt-just-name-recognition/

Sanders, conversely, has a high floor of support and a lot of enthusiasm behind him, but that’s tempered by having some Democrats — 22 percent in the Iowa poll — who have an unfavorable view of him. If that number holds at 22 percent — and the other 78 percent of Democrats would consider voting for Sanders — he shouldn’t have a lot of problems. Still, 22 percent is high as compared with the scores for candidates such as Biden, Booker and Harris, and Sanders will face a new type of scrutiny for him as one of the frontrunners who is taking fire from all sides, instead of being in a two-candidate race as the underdog against Clinton.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Can Sanders Win Without Clinton In the Race? [View all] Gothmog Feb 2019 OP

3 people in a race is a hellova lot different than 10, GemDigger Feb 2019 #1

It will be hard katmondoo Feb 2019 #2

no. lindysalsagal Feb 2019 #3

There are many factors at play that all point to the same conclusion. CrossingTheRubicon Feb 2019 #4

Well he didn't win with Hillary in the race last time. comradebillyboy Feb 2019 #5

He didnt win with her in the race. honest.abe Feb 2019 #6

No. And the field will be much smaller by Super Tuesday. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #7

I didn't even think about Super Tuesday SFnomad Feb 2019 #9

There's no way that many will make it that far. Half a dozen tops. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #11

Super Tuesday will not be good for sanders Gothmog Feb 2019 #15

Not only did he not win with Secretary Clinton in the race, he really wasn't even close SFnomad Feb 2019 #8

I don't agree that Obama's win in the 2008 primaries was all that decisive. StevieM Feb 2019 #42

By the end of February, it was pretty clear that Senator Clinton had a very steep hill to climb SFnomad Feb 2019 #44

While I certainly remember that Sanders and his supporters were waiting for the indictment fairy StevieM Feb 2019 #49

Isn't the CA Primary in March 2020, on Super Tuesday? stopbush Feb 2019 #10

CA, TX, TN, AL, VA, etc. It won't be a good day for Sanders. If he's even still in the race. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #12

I hope not. NT Persondem Feb 2019 #13

The Russians helped sanders a great deal by energizing the Neverhillary types Gothmog Feb 2019 #14

It took a number of Democrats and Republicans several races before they got the nomination Quixote1818 Feb 2019 #16

No, he doesn't. Look at the primary schedule. Look at the dozen states that follow New Hampshire. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #19

Well no one thought Trump had a chance Quixote1818 Feb 2019 #20

Apples and oranges. For starters... Garrett78 Feb 2019 #21

I think if Biden doesn't get in Lazy Daisy Feb 2019 #23

Well, no one thought about Fucking russia Cha Feb 2019 #33

There are several states where the #NeverHillary vote pushed Bernie Sanders over the top Gothmog Feb 2019 #17

#NeverHillary voters were conservative, not super liberal. Gothmog Feb 2019 #18

Many thanks for posting that chart Awsi Dooger Feb 2019 #29

No way. betsuni Feb 2019 #22

he's got this.. he thinks.. Cha Feb 2019 #32

The whole campaign will be based on things that do not exist. betsuni Feb 2019 #34

Exactly, betsuni.. good way to put it. Cha Feb 2019 #35

That is so offensive and sickening. athena Mar 2019 #64

I think the competition is much tougher this time. IluvPitties Feb 2019 #24

No. But of course he couldn't win against Clinton, either. highplainsdem Feb 2019 #25

I think a better question would be can Sanders win without Hillary supporters in the primaries? still_one Feb 2019 #26

ZING! LongtimeAZDem Feb 2019 #27

Good point Gothmog Feb 2019 #30

Definitely. Amimnoch Mar 2019 #60

Great post Gothmog Mar 2019 #63

Ouch! CrossingTheRubicon Feb 2019 #47

I will go out on a limb... NO. fleabiscuit Feb 2019 #52

Mmm hmm. Amimnoch Mar 2019 #59

The gloves will be off this time. lapucelle Feb 2019 #28

I am glad that the candidates will be vetted this cycle Gothmog Feb 2019 #41

his track record isn't good. Cha Feb 2019 #31

Absolutely! Power 2 the People Feb 2019 #36

I doubt that sanders gets past Super Tuesday Gothmog Feb 2019 #37

If he even makes it to Super Tuesday. Garrett78 Feb 2019 #38

South Carolina will not be a good state for sanders Gothmog Feb 2019 #39

Forgive or forget what exactly? Power 2 the People Mar 2019 #61

I hate to break it ot you but a large number of real democrats have strong feelings about sanders Gothmog Mar 2019 #62

According to Nate Silver, I am not alone Gothmog Mar 2019 #67

Bernie's Support Scatters In Big Field Gothmog Mar 2019 #58

It was NeverHillary vote that helped sanders Gothmog Feb 2019 #40

This isn't a binary choice this time Trenzalore Feb 2019 #43

Which will hurt sanders Gothmog Feb 2019 #45

Time will tell Trenzalore Feb 2019 #46

sanders delegates hate everyone and will not play nice Gothmog Feb 2019 #48

#NeverHiillary is still alive Gothmog Feb 2019 #50

It could depend on how the African American vote goes. RDANGELO Feb 2019 #51

They won't split. fleabiscuit Feb 2019 #53

without Clinton or Biden, he will be the nominee AlexSFCA Feb 2019 #54

No, next question Blue_Tires Feb 2019 #55

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2019 #56

Bernie Sanders has already lost more than half of his 2016 supporters Gothmog Mar 2019 #57

I don't think he can win period ismnotwasm Mar 2019 #65

Well, he didn't win with her in the race, either. MineralMan Mar 2019 #66