Biden holds two-to-one lead over Sanders in post-debate poll (Harvard CAPS/Harris poll)

[Gothmog]

31. Joe Biden Is the Big Winner of the Democrats' Leftward Shift

Harris, sanders and Warren can go after the extreme left of the party but Biden will be the nominee if he wins the middle of the party which comprises the bulk of the party

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In the 2016 race, voters who identified as “very liberal” were the only ideological group in which Sanders ran evenly with Hillary Clinton. But they represented only about one-fourth of all primary voters, according to a cumulative analysis of 2016 exit polls by CNN. Voters who identified as “somewhat liberal” (just over one-third) or “moderate and conservative” (about two-fifths) cast a larger share of the vote. Likewise, voters over age 45 cast fully 60 percent of all primary votes in 2016, compared with about one-sixth for voters under 30.

On paper, Biden could face competition for moderate and older voters from the other centrists in the field. But none of them have yet consolidated much support. And while some of the moderate candidates performed well over the two nights—particularly Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Montana Governor Steve Bullock—none of them had a breakout moment likely to dramatically improve their position. Meanwhile, several of the relative moderates, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, delivered low-wattage performances that may further hurt their standing in the polls.....

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll underscores the challenge Democrats may face selling many of those ideas. In that survey, 54 percent of Americans opposed eliminating private insurance; 62 percent opposed covering the undocumented in any national health-care system; and 66 percent opposed decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings.

Even among Democrats who identified as moderate or conservative, nearly half opposed covering the undocumented, and a clear majority opposed decriminalizing border crossings, according to detailed results provided to The Atlantic by Marist. A solid majority of those more moderate Democrats also rejected ending the death penalty, which every major Democratic contender has now embraced. In the survey, a national health-care system that eliminates private insurance did register support from a clear majority of both liberal Democrats and moderates. But, for Democrats primarily concerned about electability, the overall public’s opposition to that idea may still make them hesitant about supporting a candidate who advocates for it.