Biden Still Holds Solid Lead Nationally

[Thekaspervote]

19. Yes, her numbers have come up... I see 2 things wrong with your assumption

1. She still polls very poorly with the AA voting block. Last Quinnipiac poll shows her at 8%.. can’t win on that- primary or the general.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637 dated 8/6

SC, the bellwether state for the AA vote is some better for her, but still low with mr. Biden holding a 19 pt lead over warren

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457373-biden-tops-democratic-field-by-19-points-in-new-south-carolina-poll dated 8/14

2. Many assume that when candidates begin to dropout that warren or Harris will gain significantly. Except the polls don’t show that at all. Morning consult polls show that second choice preferences will not eat into his lead

Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/ dated 8/12


Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%


So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.


And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%