Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(62,216 posts)

21. Biden's been polling at about 30% most of the time for 10 months now, per CNN's Harry Enten.

Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:24 PM

Aug 2019

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-08-20-19/index.html

See the blog entry there with the headline Joe Biden's lead isn't going away like Jeb Bush's did.

The truth, however, is that the former vice president is pretty steady. With the exception of a major upswing upon his announcement and major decline following the first debate, Biden's been hovering around 30% in the polls for about 10 months now.

He was at 33% in October 2018, 29% in March 2019, 32% in May 2019 and 29% in our latest poll.

Weak front-runners in past years had already given up their national leads by this point. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had dropped to 13% in an August 2015 CNN poll. He lagged well behind Donald Trump.

-snip-

Candidates polling at what Biden is nationally win nominations about 40% of the time.

But perhaps most important is what our poll cannot show. Biden's national lead is backed up by smaller (though still consistent) advantages in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Most failed front-runners like Bush, Lieberman and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani were well behind in the early states by this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Biden's Polling Average down to 29% [View all] bluewater Aug 2019 OP

Damn, these polls are all over the place. SunSeeker Aug 2019 #1

Down to?? onetexan Aug 2019 #2

The tracking chart shows the trends, so yes, down to 29% as of today. bluewater Aug 2019 #3

Biden will track higher in 3 days Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #5

Today's CNN Poll IS shown in the average. Look at the link again. bluewater Aug 2019 #7

Yes .. but one of the older polls will drop from the average Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #28

... Kahuna7 Aug 2019 #19

Same poll shows he maintains the same lead he's had for at least a week 13.2% Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #8

The OP definitely doesn't want to put any positive light into n Biden. Must be disappointing that still_one Aug 2019 #10

The Polling AVERAGE is what the Polling AVERAGE is. bluewater Aug 2019 #14

This message was self-deleted by its author still_one Aug 2019 #17

I feel your pain Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #30

That was my point. CN was obviously putting a negative spin on Biden onetexan Aug 2019 #31

the tracking chart, for what it's worth Celerity Aug 2019 #33

More concerning is the enthusiasm gap for Joe Fiendish Thingy Aug 2019 #4

Here's another take on why voters may feel the way they do from The Guardian. Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #13

Return to normal - exactly onetexan Aug 2019 #32

And yet he's roughly equal to the 2nd and 3rd place candidates combined, one of whom.... George II Aug 2019 #6

Crazy wide open race, eh? bluewater Aug 2019 #11

Meanwhile "Harris plummets in new 2020 poll...out of the first and even second tier" Princetonian Aug 2019 #9

That link has HTML editing code, won't work for anyone but you. Here's the link to the thread: highplainsdem Aug 2019 #15

Over the past 7-10 days Warren is down even more. honest.abe Aug 2019 #12

Yes, it should since the spread in the candidate's numbers have not shifted leads Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #16

Front runners always get the headlines ;) bluewater Aug 2019 #18

And Warren is also a front runner in some polls. honest.abe Aug 2019 #20

Here's a peak at how that drop out will affect the state of the race Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #24

You are certainly entitled to your opinion Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #22

Biden's been polling at about 30% most of the time for 10 months now, per CNN's Harry Enten. highplainsdem Aug 2019 #21

So your point is Biden has been flat lining at 30%? bluewater Aug 2019 #25

Flatlining refers to death. Candidates stuck at a couple percent or less are flatlinging. Biden is highplainsdem Aug 2019 #29

Bottom line ...Biden still maintains the same lead over the other candidates 13.2% Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #34

I just redid the message above to post as an OP: highplainsdem Aug 2019 #26

the problem may be that the so called top tier candidates can't beat Biden JI7 Aug 2019 #23

I agree. mtnsnake Aug 2019 #27

alternative title to OP - "warren down..." nt msongs Aug 2019 #35

Seeing that he was at 55% of dems in June then down to 40% Kind of Blue Aug 2019 #36