Democratic Primaries

OhZone

(3,216 posts)

10. "Believe in" -

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:18 PM

Aug 2019

Not like a religious thing.

No.

Not like a religious thing.

But they are interesting snapshots.

And I know they are imperfect.

But they can give an idea of what things look like at the moment.

As far as Clinton goes, if the electoral college didn't exist, that predictor was pretty accurate for the popular vote.

Now, you have to look at averages and trends. Nate Silver did notice a trend toward Trump at the last moment, if you remember.

Also, the prediction markets were much more accurate again in 2018!!

So, yeah, I do not completely discount polls.

But at the same time, I do know that things change.

However, for the moment, NOTBIDEN does not poll as well against Rump as BIDEN does.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Who will be the Not Biden candidate in March? [View all] Funtatlaguy Aug 2019 OP

The not Biden polling is about 2x Biden. Voltaire2 Aug 2019 #1

Bernie will not drop out... Fresh_Start Aug 2019 #2

He is weak in IA but strong in NH. He is weak in SC but strong in NV. That is why he will stay in. LonePirate Aug 2019 #7

But he still won't be the nominee. He has done precisely comradebillyboy Aug 2019 #15

Not Biden - OhZone Aug 2019 #3

you still believe in polls? at140 Aug 2019 #5

Polls do not measure the EC. They measure the popular vote which she won handily. LonePirate Aug 2019 #8

I would have loved to have seen some more state by state Funtatlaguy Aug 2019 #11

There were tons of state polls on RCP at140 Aug 2019 #18

"Believe in" - OhZone Aug 2019 #10

Belief in the certainty of polls is what too many on the Left had in WI, MI, and PA. elocs Aug 2019 #16

---/this/--- at140 Aug 2019 #17

Biden, Warren, maybe Harris. Sanders is losing support to Warren, and his base is not expanding still_one Aug 2019 #4

Harris continues to fade. Will not be a factor. Sneederbunk Aug 2019 #6

Most of the Harris supporters I've talked to Bettie Aug 2019 #13

I really like Harris Gothmog Aug 2019 #9

I really think they'd be a dynamite ticket. Funtatlaguy Aug 2019 #12

Warren most likely given the current situation... comradebillyboy Aug 2019 #14

Come March, I don't think Biden will be in it. Nor do I think Bernie will be in the running by then mtnsnake Aug 2019 #19