Confirmational Bias versus the latest Mommouth Poll

[DrToast]

11. Those polls you listed?

They’re all pretty much in line with previous polls by the same pollsters with respect to Biden.

Pollsters have different methodologies, so it’s a good idea to compare several polls by the same pollster to detect actual signs of people changing their minds.

It’s not just the percentages of the Monmouth poll that seemed unusual. It’s that it was wildly different then previous Monmouth polls. And if the results were because of people changing their minds, you would see similar movements in other polls.

Then poll was an outlier. It happens. No, it shouldn’t be excluded from polling averages because outliers can happen in the other direction too. That’s why polling averages are useful; they can help smooth out the outliers.

In summary, no, the fact that other polls show Biden at similar levels as the Monmouth poll doesn’t mean Monmouth wasn’t an outlier.