Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,420 posts)

13. How many similar polls does it take before they might not be outliers?

Wed Aug 28, 2019, 12:40 PM

Aug 2019

If 9 polls in one month isn't enough, how many are?

Time will tell how accurate any poll really is once voting starts.

But again, we should all stop saying "but that's only one poll! it's an outlier!" when it isn't only one poll and might not be an outlier at all.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Confirmational Bias versus the latest Mommouth Poll [View all] bluewater Aug 2019 OP

OMG! OilemFirchen Aug 2019 #1

lol An excellent example of Confirmational Bias? bluewater Aug 2019 #3

OMG! OilemFirchen Aug 2019 #6

:) Maybe it's just too much OP verbiage? Sure you're disappointed, Hortensis Aug 2019 #46

Outlier (noun): brooklynite Aug 2019 #2

They said it "appears to be an outlier." bluewater Aug 2019 #5

Do those other polls show Warren and BS with similarly high level of support? George II Aug 2019 #43

Here's what the director at Monmouth u said about their poll Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #4

To the knock down Biden folk - what an autoritative bust empedocles Aug 2019 #7

Indeed... go Joe go...we've got your back!! Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #8

Where did they admit they messed up? n/t TCJ70 Aug 2019 #22

Been Waiting for this one. The only conformational bias is coming from one poster in this thread still_one Aug 2019 #40

The statement, the last two sentences of the first paragraph are key: George II Aug 2019 #44

The director of the Monmouth poll admits its "bias confirming" result was an outlier. lapucelle Aug 2019 #51

Give it up. TwilightZone Aug 2019 #9

Whatever helps you sleep at night, my friend. LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #10

Eight polls from four different pollsters... that surprised even me. bluewater Aug 2019 #12

Those polls you listed? DrToast Aug 2019 #11

How many similar polls does it take before they might not be outliers? bluewater Aug 2019 #13

Confirmation bias indeed. DrToast Aug 2019 #14

Remarkably, OilemFirchen Aug 2019 #16

Thanks for the heads up DrToast Aug 2019 #19

Seems like confirmation bias from where I sit. bluewater Aug 2019 #17

With great conviction you have told us that the polls are the polls and you are right, they are Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #18

The polls are what the polls are. bluewater Aug 2019 #20

My point was lost Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #24

Mine too, apparently. bluewater Aug 2019 #25

But you only listed the results for only one candidate, what about all the others? Did they.... George II Aug 2019 #52

From my twitter feed Gothmog Aug 2019 #15

What do you think of Elizabeth Warren's healthcare ideas? BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #21

Check out my journal! bluewater Aug 2019 #23

So nothing off the top of your head. BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #26

Tangential discussions aren't my thing. ;) bluewater Aug 2019 #27

I actually did check it out. BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #31

Seems like you really didn't check it out closely... bluewater Aug 2019 #36

So of the 21, "only" 16 weren't related to Warren. BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #37

lol "only" if polls and the debates are not related to Warren. bluewater Aug 2019 #38

OMG! OilemFirchen Aug 2019 #41

lol bluewater Aug 2019 #42

sure but qazplm135 Aug 2019 #28

The main point was Biden dropping 13% in that poll. bluewater Aug 2019 #29

it also had qazplm135 Aug 2019 #30

This message was self-deleted by its author Chemisse Aug 2019 #32

The correct statistical term is Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #33

I agree with you, and then some. bobGandolf Aug 2019 #34

Ah, so you guys are dusting off the "anointed one" moniker again, eh? LanternWaste Aug 2019 #35

Assuming gender? bluewater Aug 2019 #49

OMG! OilemFirchen Aug 2019 #50

lol bluewater Aug 2019 #53

Can we just not bloviate over every poll? Clash City Rocker Aug 2019 #39

Curb your anxiety. As you purport to show, Biden isn't an authentic front runner, polls mean nothing emmaverybo Aug 2019 #45

This! Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #47

Excellent observation still_one Aug 2019 #48