Democratic Primaries

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

32. As your graph shows - it was essentially a two-person race between Hillary and Obama nationally.

Wed Aug 28, 2019, 01:30 PM

Aug 2019

Edwards was, for most the campaign, at least ten points behind Obama and only registered above 15% briefly - in September and then shortly after he finished second in Iowa.

Beyond that, there was only three candidates registering above 10% on average (Hillary, Obama and Edwards).

Right now? There are three candidates already averaging above 15% (as opposed to two) - Biden, Sanders and Warren. And there's four candidates above 5% (Harris).

The field wasn't split. It really was a two-person race. 2016 is split. Sanders and Warren are literally two viable candidates polling right by one another. The comparison isn't valid, IMO.

Moreover, Obama's Iowa numbers were significantly stronger than his national averages.

On Aug. 28th, 2007, literally at this point in the 2008 campaign, Obama was actually TIED with Hillary (statistically) in the RCP average of polls in Iowa.

Currently? Biden leads by +8 points over Warren on average.

That's a huge difference. Biden's lead is smaller in Iowa than it is nationally - but not by much. Hillary's lead was 20+ points lower in Iowa than it had been nationally.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Polls: A reminder from 2007/08 [View all] crazytown Aug 2019 OP

Way too much attention being paid to polls right now mcar Aug 2019 #1

Agree 100%. n/t MBS Aug 2019 #19

That's for sure. Knowing that, can't help checking Hortensis Aug 2019 #26

Good reminder FoxNewsSucks Aug 2019 #2

Yes, we need a proud member of the Democratic Party as our nominee. elocs Aug 2019 #40

Like who? FoxNewsSucks Sep 2019 #41

+1 myohmy2 Sep 2019 #42

Gee, are they running? No, but plenty of good Democrats are. elocs Sep 2019 #43

The pattern will of course be repeated BeyondGeography Aug 2019 #3

Iowa is critically dependent on the ground game. crazytown Aug 2019 #8

Someone here posted philf99 Aug 2019 #4

That is correct. MBS Aug 2019 #18

I don't see anyone at all like Obama among the candidates trailing Biden. highplainsdem Aug 2019 #5

+100,000,000,000 Skya Rhen Aug 2019 #6

And I didn't see a 76-YO HRC making one verbal misstep after another in 2007 BeyondGeography Aug 2019 #7

I suggest you google highplainsdem Aug 2019 #13

I remember a very sure-footed candidate who killed it in the debates BeyondGeography Aug 2019 #23

"An Obama-level candidate was the only way she could lose" crazytown Aug 2019 #28

Obama didn't become 'Obama' until after Iowa. crazytown Aug 2019 #9

Unless you think Harris or Booker can win in Iowa and that victory will suddenly highplainsdem Aug 2019 #11

I have no doubt VP Biden is in the 'box seat' crazytown Aug 2019 #14

I agree that the future remains to be written, and we can still see an upset, maybe a series of highplainsdem Aug 2019 #21

Disclosure - I have one big wish for Iowa crazytown Aug 2019 #24

I don't expect Sanders to drop out even if he loses badly in Iowa. highplainsdem Aug 2019 #25

This message was self-deleted by its author crazytown Aug 2019 #27

I think the only possibility is Harris. honest.abe Aug 2019 #16

I don't see Biden being like Obama at all Bradshaw3 Aug 2019 #29

He doesn't have to be. People like and trust him because he's Joe Biden. highplainsdem Aug 2019 #30

There is THAT glaring difference. NT emmaverybo Aug 2019 #31

I do! jcgoldie Aug 2019 #35

The 'Game Over' meme isn't very effective Ponietz Aug 2019 #10

Except ... Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #12

From memory crazytown Aug 2019 #15

My statement stands Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #17

And as I said, that phenomenon was not predicted (at all) by the polls up to Iowa crazytown Aug 2019 #20

Thanks. Timely and appropriate reminder. n/t MBS Aug 2019 #22

As your graph shows - it was essentially a two-person race between Hillary and Obama nationally. Drunken Irishman Aug 2019 #32

Of course polls don't matter... until they validate our own desires. LanternWaste Aug 2019 #33

... crazytown Aug 2019 #34

Every election has variables treestar Aug 2019 #36

Last Three Cycles from RealClearPolitics LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #37

No frontrunner lead as clearly as HRC in 2007 crazytown Aug 2019 #38

Well the fact that it's only 3/5 (though 3/3 during the last three primaries) demonstrates that LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #39