Democratic Primaries

LincolnRossiter

(560 posts)

20. I posted a graphic from RCP in another thread showing that in the last five contested primaries

Sat Aug 31, 2019, 02:32 PM

Aug 2019

(2 in 2008, 1 in 2012, 2 in 2016) the candidate leading at the end of August in the preceding year (where we are now) won in 3/5 cases, which were the last three—Romney in 12, Clinton in 16, Trump in 16. In 2008 Clinton and Giuliani led at this point in their respective primaries.

In 4/5 cases (all but Giuliani, who had a bizarre strategy of not seriously contesting any primary until Florida) the late August leader went the distance and finished top 2. This includes the three aforementioned winners plus Hillary in 08 (who actually received more raw votes than Obama in that year’s primary.

So barring unforeseen scandals or meltdowns, being in the lead at this point is statistically significant over the last three cycles (the modern era).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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I believe it's a 3- candidate race. [View all] MontanaFarmer Aug 2019 OP

I'd replace Sanders with Harris. Theres just no way Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. oldsoftie Aug 2019 #1

I don't think he'll be the nominee either. MontanaFarmer Aug 2019 #3

I agree with that. MoonRiver Aug 2019 #9

+1 question everything Aug 2019 #10

I agree - I think Sanders has topped out rurallib Aug 2019 #36

I think it's too early to declare it a three-person race. Warren and Sanders aren't really any highplainsdem Aug 2019 #2

+1000 Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #23

It is too early to predict who is going to be the nominee. wasupaloopa Aug 2019 #4

I posted a graphic from RCP in another thread showing that in the last five contested primaries LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #20

Interesting break down..thx for doing the work and posting Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #24

Even if we agree Warren has the "best and most well articulated plans" for every issue... WheelWalker Aug 2019 #5

Yes she does have the "best and most well articulated plans" Green Line Aug 2019 #11

She has many times described exactly how she is going to pay for them. They will pass the same way KPN Aug 2019 #18

"Even if..." I don't agree with that premise, but wanted to point out even if true, there is more WheelWalker Aug 2019 #21

Yes he does Green Line Aug 2019 #22

Indeed.. I am also concerned about her foreign policy statements Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #25

Disagree... brooklynite Aug 2019 #6

As i said in a reply above: MontanaFarmer Aug 2019 #7

I'm not aware thing for or against anyone... brooklynite Aug 2019 #19

Actually if you look at second choices, it seems it doesn't play out that way Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #27

Team Elizabeth! Yes, I'm on that team, too. PatrickforO Aug 2019 #8

I think bernie an Warren are splitting the same base... Joe941 Aug 2019 #12

That's not what the polls say Green Line Aug 2019 #15

This! See post #27...lays out those numbers you are referring to Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #28

Harris lost me after talking about the bus thing the SECOND debate. dsp3000 Aug 2019 #13

She was my second choice before she pulled that stunt Green Line Aug 2019 #16

She also best represents the largest share of Dems when you consider which two candidates KPN Aug 2019 #14

Neither EW nor BS can win the South and Midwest. nt NYMinute Aug 2019 #17

This is what we have to worry about mainstreetonce Aug 2019 #26

I do like her but, EW is at 2% with AA voters. No one can win on that Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #29

This i agree with. MontanaFarmer Aug 2019 #33

Why do you think Trump speaks to kitchen table issues better than Warren? blm Aug 2019 #31

Bernie is stuck at 8% (here at DU) and won't be going anywhere aeromanKC Aug 2019 #30

Biden, Warren and Harris. The Velveteen Ocelot Aug 2019 #32

Bernie Sanders advocated breaking up Big Ag Eric J in MN Aug 2019 #34

I like his plan. MontanaFarmer Aug 2019 #35

I see a 2+2 situation Lithos Aug 2019 #37