Bernie Sanders Is the Strongest Candidate to Beat Donald Trump [View all]

[Uncle Joe]

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Electorally speaking, Trump won for two related reasons: in key swing states, a handful of former Obama voters opted for Trump over Clinton, and another handful decided to vote for nobody at all. To unseat Trump, the nominee will have to perform well in those swing areas. Instead of projecting our own fantasies about what voters (and potential voters) are looking for in a candidate, we should look at the supporter data that is already available.

The Daily Beast reports that in the 206 counties that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then went for Donald Trump in 2016, Bernie Sanders is raking in far and away the most individual donations. Sanders has received 81,841 donations from 33,185 donors in flipped counties. That’s roughly three times as much as runner-up Elizabeth Warren, who received 26,298 donations from 13,674 donors. Buttigieg comes in just under Warren, with Biden trailing closely behind.

It would be a mistake to draw a direct line from donors to voters. While it’s clear that Sanders has the most enthusiastic support base (he continues to break records for individual donations), we can’t just perform simple multiplication to predict the voter breakdown. Donor profiles differ from voter profiles in key ways: donors are more engaged in the political process, but plenty of semi-disengaged people will pull the lever in their state’s primary election, and plenty of even more disengaged people will do the same in the general election.

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Each enthusiastic donor — especially someone donating this far in advance of the general election — is more likely than the average person to talk to their friends, family, and coworkers about politics. Early donors are likely to put bumper stickers on their cars and signs on their lawns. If they’re union members, they’re more likely than passive non-donors to take an interest in their union’s 2020 electoral work. They’re more likely to knock on doors and and join voter registration drives. All of this will have a major impact on the political climate in their local areas come general election time.

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https://jacobinmag.com/2019/09/bernie-sanders-beats-donald-trump