Democratic Primaries

Thekaspervote

(35,819 posts)

92. Umm no... it doesn't work that way

Sun Sep 8, 2019, 06:55 PM

Sep 2019

Here are two links that better explain about voter 2nd choice preferences

candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%

Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%

Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%

Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%

So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.

And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%

Here’s another informative look at how little warren and sanders voters have little in common

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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CBS News Battleground Poll: Warren 26%, Biden 25%, Sanders 19% (early contests thru super Tuesday) [View all] jcgoldie Sep 2019 OP

remember. the media WANTS a horse race to cover. - n/t lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #1

Oh ok jcgoldie Sep 2019 #2

well, keep looking for more polling like this one lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #3

No I would not jcgoldie Sep 2019 #4

Whoever is ahead is who they will express "concerns about" lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #9

Is Warren a socialist? I heard she believes in HEALTHY Capitalism. blm Sep 2019 #14

That isn't what the media would report. lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #20

Perhaps it needs someone who EXCELS at explaining how healthy capitalism blm Sep 2019 #37

old business bromide lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #40

I do. blm Sep 2019 #42

I don't want this election to depend on a "we'll see" lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #46

There's quite a difference between 76 and 70 actually. I'm 68. Just from personal experience KPN Sep 2019 #59

As I stated before lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #64

I'm with you on wanting a younger candidate and beating tRump being the principal priority. My KPN Sep 2019 #68

I supported Hillary over Sanders lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #70

Me ... I think Warren will appeal sufficiently to the midddle and very well to the left. KPN Sep 2019 #73

I don't think voters want change lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #75

Agreed. I think that change as well as a return to KPN Sep 2019 #80

Then Warren should not have two terms treestar Sep 2019 #84

That's different. Voltaire2 Sep 2019 #44

And up to now " it's too early" for Biden LakeArenal Sep 2019 #5

I believe its too early for this polling to matter much jcgoldie Sep 2019 #6

Then why use the word gleeful. LakeArenal Sep 2019 #12

Yep jcgoldie Sep 2019 #18

So you are just snarky like other snarks. LakeArenal Sep 2019 #21

Glad you enjoyed the poll! jcgoldie Sep 2019 #24

I'm not gleeful... I think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #13

You didn't say you were gleeful LakeArenal Sep 2019 #16

Grant wasn't gleeful at Appomattox lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #22

So sorry. That comment Re: gleeful LakeArenal Sep 2019 #26

as an AA the idea that you think AA voters wouldn't turn out for WArren qazplm135 Sep 2019 #34

It's not me that thinks that, it is the polling lapfog_1 Sep 2019 #39

no, she doesn't qazplm135 Sep 2019 #41

I don't see anyone saying the AA voting block "hates" EW. Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #90

No they didn't qazplm135 Sep 2019 #94

The real problem in 2016 was white voters BlueWI Sep 2019 #95

.... okay. KPN Sep 2019 #56

Yougov has always been one of Biden's worse polls. Kahuna7 Sep 2019 #7

This isn't your average YouGov Poll crazytown Sep 2019 #8

Whatever. It's still one of his worse pollsters. I linked the RCP list of polls. Kahuna7 Sep 2019 #10

Yes this is the case..those questioning it should take a look a RCP for yourself Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #91

Don't you understand, any poll that doesn't show Biden in the lead is a bad poll. vsrazdem Sep 2019 #15

Seriously!! It's fascinating to see the denial as the Joe-mentum is slowly waning by the day. InAbLuEsTaTe Sep 2019 #76

1.8 MOE?!? That's the lowest I've seen in any poll this cycle Fiendish Thingy Sep 2019 #19

This CBS poll has had Warren several points higher than her RCP average since June, at least 3 highplainsdem Sep 2019 #61

There may be the same bias towards Warren crazytown Sep 2019 #65

I couldn't find Yougov or CBS/Yougov among the data at that site. KPN Sep 2019 #62

Click the link to expand the list, then do a search for yougov. nt Kahuna7 Sep 2019 #71

Did that. Got nothiung. I'll try again I guess. KPN Sep 2019 #74

Joe's still the front runner griffi94 Sep 2019 #11

Still too early to say, IMO. blm Sep 2019 #17

I hope all the polls start looking like this... TCJ70 Sep 2019 #23

When Sanders throws his support to Warren cilla4progress Sep 2019 #25

Not going to happen. crazytown Sep 2019 #27

It could very well happen in a second round vote. Voltaire2 Sep 2019 #45

Ha That scenario is still a long way out. griffi94 Sep 2019 #28

Perhaps I am a pessimist here, BlueMTexpat Sep 2019 #63

I'm sure that there are some Bernie Or Bust voters griffi94 Sep 2019 #69

And... when Warren becomes the Democratic nominee and Biden throws his support to her DCofVA Sep 2019 #31

that's never going to happen qazplm135 Sep 2019 #35

Yup. But let's hope he does if and when it appears she has him beaten. Frankly, I believe KPN Sep 2019 #66

Could see that... or the other way around. Either way, Bernie & Elizabeth WILL team up... InAbLuEsTaTe Sep 2019 #77

Yes! floppyboo Sep 2019 #88

Umm no... it doesn't work that way Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #92

There is such antipathy toward women in power in our country. It is so ingrained, inborn, and efhmc Sep 2019 #29

I agree 100% but... jcgoldie Sep 2019 #30

Likewise but then he did have a penis. efhmc Sep 2019 #32

only because of a fluke of the EC qazplm135 Sep 2019 #36

Hillary won the popular vote despite being one of the most unpopular politicians to ever run for Tiggeroshii Sep 2019 #86

We as a country are Just not used to the idea of a woman as the commander-in-chief. emmaverybo Sep 2019 #89

This!! I am envious when I look at other countries with fe PM or prez. Sadly even Hillary said Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #93

I do think Warren will be the nominee JenniferJuniper Sep 2019 #33

I'm with cilla4progress Sep 2019 #38

I don't either. I just pray it is not the not a Democrat. efhmc Sep 2019 #48

+1 grantcart Sep 2019 #52

Does the 2 percent that Tom Steyer got in Iowa and Nevada get him into the 4th debate? StevieM Sep 2019 #43

YouGov state polls are not on the list crazytown Sep 2019 #47

Yes, according to what I read on Twitter earlier. Let me see if I can find any of those tweets: highplainsdem Sep 2019 #60

In Tom's mind, he is in! at140 Sep 2019 #79

They are only counting certain states treestar Sep 2019 #49

In order to project an early delegate count crazytown Sep 2019 #50

Look at Beto! Iliyah Sep 2019 #51

Bit of an outlier but it's fine Loki Liesmith Sep 2019 #53

According to the article on cbs poll biden still ahead in Iowa and South Carolina FloridaBlues Sep 2019 #55

Looks like the one outlier last week isn't such an outlier now. Warren ahead now seems to be the Quixote1818 Sep 2019 #54

Lol no Loki Liesmith Sep 2019 #72

LOL Tiggeroshii Sep 2019 #85

Well, there certainly is major momentum for Warren with Biden slowly leaking support Quixote1818 Sep 2019 #96

This poll's had Warren several points higher than the RCP average for 3 polls now, since June: highplainsdem Sep 2019 #57

I for one am glad that people are starting to listen to EW pecosbob Sep 2019 #58

Doesnt mean much as this point. Joe941 Sep 2019 #67

WOW...go Elizabeth Warren! at140 Sep 2019 #78

Warren is dominating. Tiggeroshii Sep 2019 #81

This is great news! Lunabell Sep 2019 #82

biden, more than anyone can afford to lose a few early. Kurt V. Sep 2019 #83

I think recent history shows that losing enough primaries early on Tiggeroshii Sep 2019 #87