Why you shouldn't count out Bernie Sanders [View all]

[JoeOtterbein]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/bernie-sanders-polls/index.html

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 5:41 PM ET, Mon September 9, 2019

(CNN) Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders seems to be the third wheel among the Democratic frontrunners. Former Vice President Joe Biden has held a consistent advantage in national primary polls. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren seems to have the crowds and momentum.

Meanwhile, Sanders is often treated as 2016 leftovers.

I'm not sure what chance Sanders has of winning the nomination, but the national and early state polling suggest Sanders shouldn't be tossed aside as an afterthought. He remains a key player in this Democratic race.

Sanders is at 15% nationally in an average of debate qualifying polls over the last month. That may not seem like a lot, but it's actually very close to Warren's 18% average. Sanders actually runs slightly ahead of Warren in a number of polls, including one released by ABC News/Washington Post this past weekend, in which Sanders was at 19% and Warren was at 18%.

Importantly, Sanders isn't dropping. His 15% in national polls is what he's averaged basically all year with the exception of a post-announcement bump in March. Sanders is not like California Sen. Kamala Harris, who started in the single digits, rose after she announced, dropped, rose again after the first debate and then dropped a second time. Having 15% support is key because it means he's at the threshold to receive delegates in primary contests.

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