Tonight's special election shows we can't afford a risky nominee in 2020

[Tom Rinaldo]

101. "Risky" is in the eye of the voter

Fairly or not Hillary Clinton was relatively unpopular with voters in 2016. Democrats knew that when we nominated her. Still she was seen as the "safe" rather than "risky" choice. Trump was the dictionary definition of a "risky" candidate.

In Democracies world wide, establishment identified political parties and candidates have not fared well in recent years. There is a restlessness in electorates inside advanced industrial and post industrial societies, an unease with politics as usual and traditional relatively centrist approaches to governing.

So what about Texas? Does that state fit the profile of a true blue area like Seattle, LA, SF or NYC? I don't think so. So why is a socialist-like/revolutionary type candidate like Bernie Sanders polling so well there?:

"The latest Univision News survey of Texas finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) doing best in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up against Trump in Texas, leading the president 48 percent to 42 percent.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump 47 percent to 43 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has a narrow 44 percent to 42 percent advantage."
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460727-biden-sanders-and-warren-lead-trump-in-new-texas-poll

Another Texas poll showed Biden and Sanders leading Trump by the same margin:

"General election head to heads
Emerson College polled 1,033 registered voters August 1-3. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2019/08/06/new-poll-biden-leads-o-rourke-in-texas-presidential-primary-race-against-sen-john-cornyn-wide-open/

Candidate Percentage vs. Trump
Biden 51% 49%
Sanders 51% 49%
O’Rourke 48% 52%
Buttigieg 48% 52%
Warren 48% 52%
Castro 47% 53%
Harris 46% 54%

Other polls show Biden running strongest against Trump in Texas, but with Sanders also beating Trump handily. Biden may indeed by our "safest" candidate. But maybe it will turn out he is not. I am not jumping to any conclusions either way. If there is one thing that pundits have been consistent about, it is there consistent misreading of the American electorate dating back to when it was assumed that a man named Barack Hussein Obama could never be elected President.