New poll shows Andrew Yang beating Kamala Harris in California

[pnwmom]

20. No responsible pollster would call a 1% difference a "lead" or an "edge."

In the world of polling statistics, Harris and Yang are tied. The probable results could be anywhere within the margin of error or credibility interval of 3.3 percent. A 1% difference is well within the 3.3 percent, so they are tied.

Also, this poll isn't a traditional poll with a stated margin of error. It uses an online panel and reports something called a "Credibility Interval" (which isn't accepted by all pollsters). Take any poll like this with an even bigger grain of salt than most polls.

The California Emerson College poll was conducted September 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=830, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, party, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=498) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=332).