Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: The fact Biden continues to dominate Trump, and has sustained his lead at the top... [View all]Bradshaw3
(7,964 posts)To me that signals they are worried that he can't make it all the way.
One, most people have NOT made up their minds. Less than 10 percent have last I saw and of course not one ballot has been cast. Also, the leading candidate at this point in the Democratic nominating process - when there is not an incumbent POTUS or Vice-POTUS running - in recent years has lost the nomination more times than not.
Also, thinking polls about the GE are reflective of what will happen in Nov of 2020 are fools gold. From 538:
"The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46.2 percent to 41.2 percent in an average of all polls conducted in November and December 2015, missing the eventual national popular vote margin by about 3 points.3 (The actual result was Clinton 48.0 percent, Trump 46.0 percent.)
But thats more the exception than the rule, as the table above shows. And remember, these are polls conducted at least five months later in the cycle than where we are now. Jump back to roughly this point in the 2016 cycle, for example, and Clinton was ahead of all eight of her hypothetical GOP opponents in a May 2015 Quinnipiac poll, with a whopping 50-32 advantage over Trump."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/
Secondly, the election is about a lot more than rump. That kind of thinking helped us lose in 2016. A lot of the issues leading to rump being elected are still there and they have to do with economic fairness. They will play a greater role than comfortability, something I haven't seen touted as a key factor in the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden