Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts)

25. The numbers I calculate can be off by one or two in each case simply because of the district level..

Sun Oct 6, 2019, 11:22 AM

Oct 2019

Even though a candidate gets less than 15% overall in a state, there could be a few districts where he/she could exceed 15%, giving that candidate one or two delegates (depending upon how that state allocates delegates). There's no way this can be accounted for in advance of the actual voting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Fox News SOUTH CAROLINA primary poll: Biden 41%, Warren 12%, Sanders 10%, Harris & Steyer 4%, [View all] highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP

We're quoting polls from Faux News LovingA2andMI Oct 2019 #1

A-rated poll, according to FiveThirtyEight, and Fox News polls have been quoted here regularly. highplainsdem Oct 2019 #3

I was just going to post exactly that - they're rated A, and Fox News polls.... George II Oct 2019 #12

It doesn't matter where the news comes from as long as it fits my narrative, interesting isn't it? Perseus Oct 2019 #4

A-rated poll according to FiveThirtyEight.. The pollster Fox uses is headed by a Democrat and a highplainsdem Oct 2019 #9

There is no one so blind as one who refuses to see. Everyone knows that this is a gold standard Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #15

Thanks, Skya! Cha Oct 2019 #43

Yes, interesting. cwydro Oct 2019 #20

If it's an A rated poll by 538, then it's squeaky clean... that means no manipulation regardless Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #28

Examples of Republicans "pushing hard" and "campaigning" for Biden? emulatorloo Oct 2019 #35

lol! Cha Oct 2019 #41

I trust nothing that comes directly from Fox news but this poll was done by a third party pollster. honest.abe Oct 2019 #11

Methodology honest.abe Oct 2019 #21

We always have...these polls are A rated. Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #23

In other words, Biden gets 100% of the delegates, all others zero. George II Oct 2019 #2

Bingo! And how many delegates does SC send to the convention? MineralMan Oct 2019 #5

South Carolina has 54 delegates... George II Oct 2019 #10

The calculations can be very difficult, really, MineralMan Oct 2019 #14

Yes. As soon as anyone drops below 15% it changes the entire calculation dramatically. George II Oct 2019 #19

It can be a nightmare to figure out. MineralMan Oct 2019 #22

The numbers I calculate can be off by one or two in each case simply because of the district level.. George II Oct 2019 #25

Exactly. Still, a rough calculation is usually close enough, in the end. MineralMan Oct 2019 #26

Which would give Joe a nice boost into Super Tuesday. honest.abe Oct 2019 #16

Thx for the breakdown!! Always good to see them laid out so clearly Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #29

Well, according to a very reliable news outfit like Faux News, yes... Perseus Oct 2019 #7

See reply 15. The DNC accepts Fox News polls. highplainsdem Oct 2019 #17

Since it's an A rated poll by 538, it means it's very legit regardless of the publisher Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #30

So, Republicans are playing 10-dimensional chess . . . peggysue2 Oct 2019 #37

Among AAs Biden 50%, Sanders 9%, Warren 8% - somebody has a lot of work to do with this part of the Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #6

This! For those interested SC is the bellwether for the AA voting block. Keep your eye on SC and Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #31

Fox News do good polls ritapria Oct 2019 #8

I wonder if Trump will take time out from smearing Romney and Schiff and Biden to attack Fox for highplainsdem Oct 2019 #18

I have had my differences with Sen. Sanders but he is my second choice as I believe he is the only Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #24

Same here...we must win at all costs Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #32

Thank you for your honest objectivity. It's refreshing. nt UniteFightBack Oct 2019 #39

As I have said before no Democrat can win without the black vote. honest.abe Oct 2019 #13

From Nate Gothmog Oct 2019 #27

This from the mouth of one of if not the single most reliable pollster . Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #33

I have been following Nte for a very long time Gothmog Oct 2019 #34

Me too! He took a lot of heat in '16 for saying he didn't think Hillary had it "sewed up" Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #36

Biden now at 50% with Black voters in South Carolina. Gothmog Oct 2019 #38

Wow this is really impressive. I wonder if rump's baseless attacks and his obvious fear of Biden UniteFightBack Oct 2019 #40

The South belongs to Biden. n/t Tarheel_Dem Oct 2019 #42