Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Is Elizabeth Warren is our strongest and best candidate? [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Warren has seen a surge among Democratic voters but that surge has not been equal in her head-to-head polls with Trump. There, her numbers have not budged at all, despite likely being more known today than she was five months ago. The only tangible data we have to tell us whether someone is the best, and strongest candidate, to win this election, are, unfortunately, head-to-head polls. Everything else is speculation based on nothing more than hope and expectation.
But despite this being the lowest point of the Trump presidency, and his approval being in the toilet, Warren has struggled coming remotely close to beating Trump comfortably - either nationally or in some of the key states the Democrats need to win to win the presidency.
Since mid-Sept., here's Warren's head-to-heads vs Trump:
IBD/TIPP (9/26 - 10/3): +2
Emerson (9/21-9/23): +2
FOX News (9/15-9/17): +6
SurveyUSA (9/13/-9/16): +2
Three of the four polls have her leading by just two-points nationally.
Those same polls with Biden?
IBD/TIPP: +7
Emerson: +1
FOX News: +14
SurveyUSA: +8
Outside Emerson, which has Biden leading by one, every other national poll has him comfortably ahead - including doing 7 points better in the FOX News poll than Warren and 6 points better in SurveyUSA.
From my perspective, Warren needs to prove she can build a national lead against Trump before I concede she's the strongest candidate to beat him. So far, that narrative has not been established in the polls and, really, that's the only hard data we have that we can point to in this argument.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden