Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Is Elizabeth Warren is our strongest and best candidate? [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I remember many DUers stating the exact same thing - Hillary will win convincingly, even when the polls suggested she would not.
I made a post in November, 2016, shortly after the Comey Letter dropped, that said the race was tightening and that we could be in for an extremely difficult election night. It wasn't to be alarmist but to point out that the vibe on DU wasn't jiving with the reality of the polls. Many here (not all - but a lot) dismissed the polls because they couldn't conceive it possible Trump could not only be competitive with Hillary ... but also win. I was never of that mindset. I knew it was possible Trump could find a narrow path to victory and that the election was ridiculously close, despite the opponent being Trump. In that post, though, someone replied convinced the election would not be close and that Hillary would win in a landslide.
Here's the exchange:
The fundamentals of this election have not changed nearly enough to matter.
Trump's path to the electoral college is still virtually impossible.
The media is doing a great job of continuing to paint this as a close race but it has never been one nor is it now.
Yes Trump will get way more votes than we think a sane country should ever give him but he will still lose spectacularly.
He has to run the board to win and even with the polls tightening that is not going to happen. It just isn't.
I would be happy to bet on that.
I replied stating that I felt Trump was still likely to lose but it was ridiculous to think he couldn't win and that it would be a blowout.
Their reply:
The fact is, polls generally give you a good indication of where the election is heading. In 2016, there was a late shift toward Trump that was even picked up by some state polls. A lot here just refused to believe it.
I think Warren can absolutely win convincingly - but I also have nothing to base that on beyond my gut feeling. Until she actually does convincingly lead in the polls, tho, I will still be somewhat skeptical.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden