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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Is Elizabeth Warren is our strongest and best candidate? [View all]Gothmog
(145,291 posts)101. Why Black Voters Prefer Establishment Candidates Over Liberal Alternatives
I personally believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are essentially meaningless. These states are 90+% white and do not represent the demographics of the party. The primary process does not really start until South Carolina where the voting population reflects the demographics of the party as a whole.
I found this article from 538 to be very informative https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-black-democrats-usually-prefer-establishment-candidates/
So here are a few explanations for why black voters have tended to side with the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. I have tried to order these explanations from strongest to weakest (in my view, at least):
1. Establishment candidates typically have existing ties to the black community
This will sound tautological, but an establishment candidate is well established. A candidate who is part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party likely has fairly strong ties to major constituencies in the party, such as labor unions, womens rights groups and, of course, black leaders and voters. So when black voters backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Cynthia Nixon in New Yorks Democratic gubernatorial primary last year, or Andy Beshear over Adam Edelen in Kentuckys Democratic gubernatorial primary earlier this year, that was not shocking. Not only did Beshear and Cuomo spend years developing their own ties with the black communities in their states, but their fathers did, too. (Steve Beshear was governor of Kentucky, Mario Cuomo the governor of New York.)
Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 similarly entered the primaries with longstanding ties to black voters. Its worth considering if the story here is not that establishment candidates are smarter in appealing and connecting with black voters during the campaign, compared to anti-establishment candidates. Maybe its that the establishment candidate in a race is likely to be the person who enters the campaign with the strongest support among black voters.
2. Black voters are pragmatic
White Democrats are significantly more likely than black Democrats to describe themselves as liberal. Perhaps thats the simple explanation for why most black voters eschew more liberal candidates. But scholars of black voters argue that the liberal-moderate-conservative framework does not apply well to predicting the actual policy positions and voting behavior of black Americans.
1. Establishment candidates typically have existing ties to the black community
This will sound tautological, but an establishment candidate is well established. A candidate who is part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party likely has fairly strong ties to major constituencies in the party, such as labor unions, womens rights groups and, of course, black leaders and voters. So when black voters backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Cynthia Nixon in New Yorks Democratic gubernatorial primary last year, or Andy Beshear over Adam Edelen in Kentuckys Democratic gubernatorial primary earlier this year, that was not shocking. Not only did Beshear and Cuomo spend years developing their own ties with the black communities in their states, but their fathers did, too. (Steve Beshear was governor of Kentucky, Mario Cuomo the governor of New York.)
Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 similarly entered the primaries with longstanding ties to black voters. Its worth considering if the story here is not that establishment candidates are smarter in appealing and connecting with black voters during the campaign, compared to anti-establishment candidates. Maybe its that the establishment candidate in a race is likely to be the person who enters the campaign with the strongest support among black voters.
2. Black voters are pragmatic
White Democrats are significantly more likely than black Democrats to describe themselves as liberal. Perhaps thats the simple explanation for why most black voters eschew more liberal candidates. But scholars of black voters argue that the liberal-moderate-conservative framework does not apply well to predicting the actual policy positions and voting behavior of black Americans.
I agree with the conclusion of this article
But even if Sanders or Warren gets more support among black voters in 2020 than the Vermont senator did in 2016, I tend to think Biden will remain fairly popular with black voters overall because of his ties to Obama and other black leaders and the perception that he can defeat Trump. So there is a very real possibility that black voters will play the same role in the 2020 presidential primary that they have played in Democratic politics over much of the last four years: blocking the path of the liberal left as it attempts to dethrone the partys establishment.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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It sounds like you missed item 4 in the post you were replying to, on how it is paid for.
thesquanderer
Oct 2019
#70
She is for people that understand what really needs to be fixed. Wall Street being scared of her
brewens
Oct 2019
#2
I don't want the economy destroyed...I have a 401 K and a bank...my hubs works for
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#7
If stopping all the high frequency trading and insider trading scams will "destroy the economy",
brewens
Oct 2019
#8
If we are not careful...Wall street moves to China...China is working on it.
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#13
Startups pay for shit and many fail in the first year...it will destabilize the economy.
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#69
She is not flexbile about this... and will cause great damage to the economy with some of her
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#141
It is not my own personal situation...I do not believe it is a good idea for the economy to
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#68
It could go to China actually...China is working on it right now. China will most likely
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#140
Blacks are 12% of the population, Women are 50%, young women voters numbers are rising
Baclava
Oct 2019
#14
This.... history tells us NO dem has won the GE without the support of AA voters
Thekaspervote
Oct 2019
#84
Just anecdotal, but the president of my local NAACP branch turned on her when she attacked Biden.
femmedem
Oct 2019
#134
By April, there were actually AA members of Congress that pulled their endorsement of Hillary
Polybius
Oct 2019
#159
Since EW holds a 2 pt lead in NH and IA there will be no big gains for her there
Thekaspervote
Oct 2019
#86
It still doesn't change the fact that EW does not have the support of the AA voters!!
Thekaspervote
Oct 2019
#96
I supported Obama from the beginning...bu I wouldn't have if I thought he wasn't the best candidate
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#155
No, she is East Coast-not attractive to the Rust belt - particularly WI and does not have the
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#4
Texas will be a battleground state unless the party nominates Warren or sanders
Gothmog
Oct 2019
#44
I know. We could lose the House and forcing red district Democrats to vote for impeachment is
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#142
Sadly thanks to Trump she is not unknown...and I do not believe she will win the states we need.
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#167
What is going to harm Warren in the general is a big positive for her in the primary.
TidalWave46
Oct 2019
#18
Indeed not, and she keeps that very close..not informing perspective voters how it will be
Thekaspervote
Oct 2019
#100
I've been with DU for over 15 years, and know the TOS, which I did not break...
Kahuna7
Oct 2019
#47
Fear-mongering about these ambitious, investment-intensive plans is already afoot in RW circles.
emmaverybo
Oct 2019
#71
I have outstanding student debt so that freebie would really help me. But I am against it. Get
emmaverybo
Oct 2019
#83
Trump will lie about Warren as well. Then he will lie about the next front runner.
emulatorloo
Oct 2019
#50
"This will reduce Biden to relying on the anti-Trump vote and the Democratic base."
lapfog_1
Oct 2019
#57
I believe Warren is the best candidate to address the massive economic problems in this country.
LonePirate
Oct 2019
#85
Biden continues to perform better than Warren in head-to-head match-ups against Trump
Gothmog
Oct 2019
#102
I can't believe you said this...do you understand that no matter how great she is...if Trump wins,
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#145
The GOP cheat like hell...we only win when we have strong numbers...but thanks. It blows my
Demsrule86
Oct 2019
#153
Without support from African American voters, I doubt that Warren will be the nominee
Gothmog
Oct 2019
#176