Democratic Primaries

aaaaaa5a

(4,686 posts)

43. Polling numbers. Gut feeling. History.

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 10:00 PM

Oct 2019

Let me begin by saying I hope if she is the nominee she has tremendous minority support.

The issue is not percentage. Black, hispanic, asian, etc. voters will vote for the nominee with huge percentage majorities.

The issue is turnout. How many minority voters will show up.

I was listening to a podcast that discussed Michigan in 2016. If the number of African Americans who voted in 2012 had voted in 2016, Hillary would have won Michigan. There were enough minority votes "left on the table" just in Michigan's Wayne County to win the state. That's all she needed. And she didn't get it.

I believe this type of scenario could happen to Warren. Minority turnout will be good. But we need it to be great. I don't know if Warren can get GREAT minority turnout.

People keep telling me Trump will get minorities to the polls. However Trump was on the ballot in 2016. And there was NOT a surge in minority vote numbers in 2016. 2012 was a better year. The 2016 number especially with hispanics was frankly, disappointing.

Thus far, Warren had not generated excitement with minority voters. To be fair, neither has Klobuchar. And without a strong minority turnout, there is no viable path to 270. Period.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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I changed my support to Amy Klobuchar. I've changed? Have you? If so why? [View all] aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 OP

She would make a very fine president. madaboutharry Oct 2019 #1

I wish I understood why she isn't doing better? aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #3

I don't understand it either. madaboutharry Oct 2019 #15

The media is not promoting the centrists. apcalc Oct 2019 #38

IMO, she is too bland and too conservative. mysteryowl Oct 2019 #45

Klobuchar is my second favorite centrist after Buttigieg (n/t) thesquanderer Oct 2019 #47

I'm with Biden but would happily support Amy if Biden is out. Kahuna7 Oct 2019 #2

As well Thekaspervote Oct 2019 #12

She would be my second choice. I loved her debate performance and how she handled that emmaverybo Oct 2019 #19

I have not changed my preference Sherman A1 Oct 2019 #4

In a manner of speaking. Blistering Sun Oct 2019 #5

I haven't changed my choice The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 2019 #6

Not even sure I'd require a pulse MaryMagdaline Oct 2019 #10

lol, yep, pretty much relayerbob Oct 2019 #11

I like Amy a lot MaryMagdaline Oct 2019 #16

Ditto. Still, there is a quiet strength and competence about Amy Klobuchar Enoki33 Oct 2019 #17

My scorecard might not be complete, Mr.Bill Oct 2019 #7

She didn't sign onto the Franken disaster either LakeArenal Oct 2019 #27

Good point. n/t Mr.Bill Oct 2019 #29

I switched to Amy a while back for the same reason randr Oct 2019 #8

No I haven't changed. I support the person who would make the best President. wasupaloopa Oct 2019 #9

I posted this the other day and still mean it apcalc Oct 2019 #13

Of course I would vote for her if nominated. aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #21

I disagree strongly with your assessment of Warren. blm Oct 2019 #34

Feel free to disagree with my assessment of Warren. ( and Sanders) apcalc Oct 2019 #37

Good for YOUR suburban experience. blm Oct 2019 #39

The last scientific poll I saw for Minnesota had dflprincess Oct 2019 #49

Yes, Warren can win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan... thesquanderer Oct 2019 #46

She is one of my favorites. northoftheborder Oct 2019 #14

I'm worried too. I wish there was more emphasis on the electoral college. aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #22

She can't win Wisconsin either. LakeArenal Oct 2019 #28

Warren could win just a handful of states, tally a massive popular vote margin... aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #33

Why do you assume the minority vote won't show blm Oct 2019 #40

Polling numbers. Gut feeling. History. aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #43

Trump has already lost 2-5% of his own 2016 voters. And voters now have blm Oct 2019 #44

I thought Michigan Karma13612 Oct 2019 #61

I was already for Amy creeksneakers2 Oct 2019 #18

yes, she's more appealing to me, too. RicROC Oct 2019 #20

That's great you're for Amy now but you Cha Oct 2019 #23

I wasn't insulting Biden aaaaaa5a Oct 2019 #24

I know how serious it is.. it's only our Cha Oct 2019 #36

This message was self-deleted by its author elocs Oct 2019 #25

I like Amy a lot. Her candidacy has not gained traction. I don't see how she wins redstateblues Oct 2019 #31

Her domestic policies are solid, Baked Potato Oct 2019 #26

Sticking with Warren dflprincess Oct 2019 #30

More people want real change. gibraltar72 Oct 2019 #32

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2019 #65

She has impressed me from the earliest days BootinUp Oct 2019 #35

I like Amy. I certainly would be pleased if she became President or VP. Capt. America Oct 2019 #41

Liz, Amy, Pete.. any or all lostnfound Oct 2019 #42

Was in my top choices Ba2020 Oct 2019 #48

I like her pattyloutwo Oct 2019 #50

I switched from Kamala to Amy. MontanaFarmer Oct 2019 #51

I went back to undecided... VarryOn Oct 2019 #52

Youre right about Joe's decline & thus effectiveness to take on tRumpty Dumbty, but wrong about Amy. InAbLuEsTaTe Oct 2019 #53

Klobuchar is probably the least attackable candidate in the field sop Oct 2019 #54

He'd dust off the reports of her treatment of her staff and have a field day BeyondGeography Oct 2019 #62

I donated what I could to her campaign after her strong performance the other night, but ... malchickiwick Oct 2019 #55

It's nice to believe in someone proud patriot Oct 2019 #56

I've always liked her & think she would make an awesome president yaesu Oct 2019 #57

I went from undecided to Warren caraher Oct 2019 #58

I do like her but she's still at 1-3%. I'm not sure how I can support her without NCLefty Oct 2019 #59

I'm really leaning toward Klobuchar Raine Oct 2019 #60

Nope. No change. I love Amy. She's one of my Senators. MineralMan Oct 2019 #63

I initially supported Klobuchar, but switched to Harris. MoonRiver Oct 2019 #64