Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Kornacki just discussed some scary polling on Morning Joe [View all]still_one
(92,190 posts)leading Trump in those battleground states
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds
Signs that the presidents advantage in the Electoral College has persisted or even increased since 2016.
Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.
The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters.
The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender including the fraught question of likability could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.
In national polls, Mr. Trumps political standing has appeared to be in grave jeopardy. His approval ratings have long been in the low 40s, and he trails Mr. Biden by almost nine points in a national polling average. But as the 2016 race showed, the story in the battleground states can be quite different. Mr. Trump won the election by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina even while losing the national vote by two points.
Democrats would probably need to win three of the six states to win the White House, assuming other states voted as they did in 2016 an outcome that is not at all assured.
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The Times/Siena poll of 3,766 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battleground sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The Times/Siena poll of 1,435 registered voters in Iowa was conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Full cross-tabs and methodology are available here.
In 2018, the Times/Siena polls had an average error of 2.5 points in 10 polls in these states over the final three weeks of the campaign. If they had been joined together as one large poll, as is the case here, the final result would have been within 1 point.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/one-year-from-election-trump-trails-biden-but-leads-warren-in-battlegrounds.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden