State of the Battleground - November edition. [View all]

[Amimnoch]

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map