Democratic Primaries

DeminPennswoods

(17,571 posts)

79. Likely voters

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:50 AM

Nov 2019

Using LVs produces much closer results because Rs tend to vote in every election while Dems vote more sporadically. One of the screening questions is usally some form of how often one votes.

For ex, in Pennsylvania, Trump is heavily underwater. This has been a consistent result in the monthy FandM Poll, the gold standard of state polling. Just a year ago, Dems swept all the statewide offices, including re-electing Gov Wolf. Wolf's opponent was Trump clone Scott Wagner by 15+ points. Sen Casey beat Trump clone Lou Barletta by double digits.

Warren has not even campaigned in PA. Her economic populism will play very well here when she starts campaigning here, assuming she's been successful in the earlier primaries.

Don't get fooled because the cable news networks are going to do everything they can to ensure there's a close "horserace" narrative for the next year. Think about the situation being reversed and a Dem president was at 40% approval.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Kornacki just discussed some scary polling on Morning Joe [View all] OliverQ Nov 2019 OP

yeah that part about going back to vote for trump after voting in the blue wave...??? samnsara Nov 2019 #1

Hence why having Biden as the nominee is so important. bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #2

That's the more important fact. Butterflylady Nov 2019 #48

I'm not sure how easy. LakeArenal Nov 2019 #153

All of those precious 'centrists' from 2018 are going to vote for trump again? RandiFan1290 Nov 2019 #3

hose moderates in red districts are why we Cha Nov 2019 #24

This country is governed by coalition builders zaj Nov 2019 #49

What a truckload of crap SterlingPound Nov 2019 #134

Hardly... zaj Nov 2019 #142

how laws get passed has nothing to do with how people get in office SterlingPound Nov 2019 #145

Who's going to bring the shouters out? zaj Nov 2019 #149

big businesses will always have a voice in the room SterlingPound Nov 2019 #152

I'm asking you... zaj Nov 2019 #154

Now if the ideologically pure centrists would just believe that. n/t MarcA Nov 2019 #166

The sure could. After a left left candidate is demonized as socialist... and they look at trillions Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #65

Biden will be labeled a Trotskyist TheRealNorth Nov 2019 #140

Nonsense, Biden can withstand any such criticism...as he has already done. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #143

"They" didn't and don't know what the ACA is or was SterlingPound Nov 2019 #144

Of course they know what the ACA is...we won moderates in 18 on the ACA and took back the house. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #147

"they" as in the American Populace while it was being passed SterlingPound Nov 2019 #148

What election do you refer to...2010 was a disaster...2018 was a big success... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #156

It is actually worse than that among likely voters in those battle ground states. Only Biden is still_one Nov 2019 #4

The article says we need to win at least 3 of these. Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #7

And, Michigan! Gov Whitmer! Cha Nov 2019 #25

Fingers crossed Cha. Any idea what Gov. Whitmer's approval is in MI? Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #35

This is the latest I could find.. Cha Nov 2019 #42

She's running about a 30% net positive. That's wonderful. Thanks for that. Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #45

The poll indicates an difference between registered and likely voters. I think Pa is most likely still_one Nov 2019 #26

Dont need FL or OH if we win back PA, MI, WI. honest.abe Nov 2019 #90

Biden will win Michigan and they don't mention it but Biden is up in Ohio against Trump as well. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #68

I've never been sure about AZ. Much like TX, they keep telling us we're so close, but it... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #74

Michigan is close...it will be a battle. Honestly, Ohio looks better right now on the ground...no Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #94

I would flip those. MI should be a lock, PA and WI more problematic. Celerity Nov 2019 #83

I guess I was hoping for somewhat of a hometown advantage for Joe in PA. nt Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #89

Not to add to the doom'n'gloom... regnaD kciN Nov 2019 #155

True but Hillary was way less popular than Biden and there is no Stein effect this year...and we are Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #160

Which probably means some of those who got swept up in the bluewave, will likely lose their... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #5

Kornacki is just regurgitating a NY Times Sienna College poll of battle ground states, and among the still_one Nov 2019 #9

The EC works to Republican's advantage. A national popular vote would exclude them from... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #14

I think he'd for sure take Michigan also. Turin_C3PO Nov 2019 #20

yup. I think it will come down to either Ohio or Florida, assuming we get out the vote as you say still_one Nov 2019 #27

I think we have a better chance in Ohio but we were close in Florida in 18. However, if we win Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #96

Absolutely!!! still_one Nov 2019 #97

I'm afraid I've lost some of the optimism I gained in '08. NC went blue in '08 & switched back.... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #32

It's a solid red state and will be one for years to come BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #53

No it isn't dsc Nov 2019 #63

It'll be red in 2020 BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #75

No it won't North Carolinians are tired of the Republican bs. rockfordfile Nov 2019 #181

LOL BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #187

Michigan. OliverQ Nov 2019 #21

Fingers crossed. My hope is that Biden wins them all, but as we only need 3, it's good to hear... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #31

Michigan is the third. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #70

Yes, it's a NYT Upshot and Siena College poll. NYT has a full story. femmedem Nov 2019 #6

and in this poll it favors Biden even more among likely voters still_one Nov 2019 #29

There's reason Trump wanted dirt on Biden. He's the one he fears dem4decades Nov 2019 #8

He wanted dirt on Warren too. He asked China to investigate her. OliverQ Nov 2019 #10

To the extent he sought dirt on Biden? Where's the investigation? dem4decades Nov 2019 #12

As this poll and there are others clearly show, Warren will not win the midwest. She will lose in Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #71

You don't know that. Half the country didn't vote. OliverQ Nov 2019 #76

There is not doubt that there is support for left-wing candidates in New York and California but not Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #86

Yes, Elizabeth is a much bigger threat to tRumpty Dumbty. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2019 #128

Why does that matter? jcgoldie Nov 2019 #34

Really? You do realize that "fucking tool" figured out how to be elected President? dem4decades Nov 2019 #44

Wow, that's a seemingly foolish statement zaj Nov 2019 #51

Since when does Trump listen to talented professionals or behave in a rational manner? jcgoldie Nov 2019 #59

"Democrats are stuck in a doom loop of premature polling" redqueen Nov 2019 #11

Kornacki and his owners loves them some scary polling BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #15

I really hope people stop clicking and sharing garbage like this redqueen Nov 2019 #18

Yes BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #54

See the way you said something I didn't say? redqueen Nov 2019 #124

Poor OliverQ didn't click, just watched a conservative show Hortensis Nov 2019 #77

I would not call MJ a conservative show these days...and it is based on a poll...good poll. We Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #131

Joe's a lifelong moderate conservative who's committed Hortensis Nov 2019 #137

That is not true. Biden is not conservative...he is progressive. He put climate change and the Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #141

You're misunderstanding what conservative and progressive are. Hortensis Nov 2019 #163

I see interesting point of view...I will read up on it. Thanks. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #177

Infotainment. First order of business is ratings. Ratings mean $$$. n/t MarcA Nov 2019 #167

It's premature polling until it's not... Drunken Irishman Nov 2019 #136

If you read the article you'll see when it's mathematically logical redqueen Nov 2019 #150

I did. Still didn't refute my point. Drunken Irishman Nov 2019 #172

This part. redqueen Nov 2019 #185

Yup. Still not refuting my point. Drunken Irishman Nov 2019 #188

Hmm. redqueen Nov 2019 #189

Looks like Morning Joe snowybirdie Nov 2019 #13

Yes. Americans are that shallow. Sadly. Raven123 Nov 2019 #16

And remember somewhere in the shadows INdemo Nov 2019 #106

Why should we bet on a risky choice this election? What is wrong with safe? Warren sure stayed emmaverybo Nov 2019 #115

Elizabeth Warren was the First to call for Trumps Impeachment and INdemo Nov 2019 #123

Right. So she was. Does not negate what I said. Not putting you on ignore. I made two emmaverybo Nov 2019 #135

You didn't read my entire post INdemo Nov 2019 #127

Thought it was three with one of those times being his quitting the race, not rejection. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #138

If MJ were honest, they'd admit that they've given Trump much more free airtime than any other.... Tarheel_Dem Nov 2019 #19

I mean, yes Americans are that shallow. OliverQ Nov 2019 #23

"Are Americans really that shallow?" BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #55

Discussing polling comparisons is equal to saying Trump will win? brooklynite Nov 2019 #56

Siena/NYT are putting out pro-Trump outliers ritapria Nov 2019 #17

Is Kornacki ever full of shite? Cha Nov 2019 #22

Kornacki : He of the Big Mouth - and the Small Brain ritapria Nov 2019 #28

It is from the NY Times Cha based on the Sienna College, an A rated poll. It says that Biden is still_one Nov 2019 #36

Biden evertonfc Nov 2019 #30

People voted against Traitor45 and Republican policies hoping to improve their lives. tikka Nov 2019 #33

The problem is except in select areas, farming, auto industry, the economy "appears to be doing just still_one Nov 2019 #40

I would not include the farming community INdemo Nov 2019 #129

I meant the farming and auto industry have been hurt the worst by his policies, and even with this still_one Nov 2019 #139

Sorry I just mis-read your post INdemo Nov 2019 #183

That's sad. I hope their eyes are open now still_one Nov 2019 #184

nonsense that people who voted democraticin 2018 will vote trump in 2020, I suspect beachbumbob Nov 2019 #37

The polls say otherwise. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #72

+1 Celerity Nov 2019 #85

That's repug Kornacki's job to spew dangerous, skewed polls which favor trump. brush Nov 2019 #38

This is a good poll A+ and it is not the only one. Trump will beat all but Biden, I am convinced of Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #73

Thank you. I'm leaning Biden too. Polls continue to say he's the... brush Nov 2019 #78

I will vote for any Democrat, I just want Trump gone. I am hoping he has coattail for the Senate as Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #84

Abrams as VP would be good. She's mesmerizing on the stump... brush Nov 2019 #88

Recently she has said she is open to being a VP ...she said it before when she was considering a run Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #101

Emerson polling yesterday of Michigan shows Sanders winning Michigan by more than Biden. OliverQ Nov 2019 #126

Well that's one for Sanders as opposed to many for Biden. brush Nov 2019 #130

Post removed Post removed Nov 2019 #132

No heart attack thougn, is a Democrat and won't be painted as... brush Nov 2019 #133

I pay as much attention to Kornacki as I do to my cat when she says her food bowl is empty Siwsan Nov 2019 #39

So... that means you pay very close attention to Kornacki? Otherwise, poor cat! nt LAS14 Nov 2019 #104

Sophie Stinky Toes is weird. If she sees anything but solid food, to her it's an empty bowl Siwsan Nov 2019 #120

:-) LAS14 Nov 2019 #122

The quickest path to victory was to win the one state with 38 electoral votes TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #41

No way were we going to win Texas. Tipperary Nov 2019 #161

Wrong answer. TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #165

So why did O'Rourke not win in his own state? Tipperary Nov 2019 #168

As I said, Cruz is more popular in Texas than Trump. TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #174

I think rump is pretty likely to win Texas. Tipperary Nov 2019 #175

He is now TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #176

It has already begun in the house ...and one day Texas will again have a Democratic Senator Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #180

We did gain several House seats in the 2018 election. TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #182

Dems are stuck campaigning in Iowa. 33taw Nov 2019 #43

Hopefully it's greatly undercounting the youth vote. JudyM Nov 2019 #46

I wouldn't hang my hat on the youth vote... comradebillyboy Nov 2019 #87

We can do a much better job of outreach to them, and they are more engaged than in the past. JudyM Nov 2019 #92

I hear this every year and ...it is always the same. They don't come out. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #103

Not true. There was a 79 percent increase in 18-29 turnout between 2014 and 2018. JudyM Nov 2019 #116

79% of a tiny amount... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #146

Another example of how statistics can be manipulated to deliver a desired message. TexasTowelie Nov 2019 #173

So true...my Dad had a book 'how to lie with statistics...he was a salesman and later and inventor. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #178

B U L L S H *T MFM008 Nov 2019 #47

I am sure the ones showing your candidate ahead are meangiful to you...I know the ones Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #179

no MFM008 Nov 2019 #186

In my part of Wisconsin everyone has a cellphone. No land lines we move our number to a cellphone. usaf-vet Nov 2019 #50

I think we're all deluding ourselves. BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #57

Bottom line is that it is going to be a battle next year that will take all hands on deck inwiththenew Nov 2019 #52

Another 'Only Biden' post crazytown Nov 2019 #58

Some of us were criticized and ridiculed when we said impeachment and/or moving too far left in our Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #60

Impeachment is the right thing to do regardless of the Politics. OliverQ Nov 2019 #67

Not if Trump remains and gets four more years and we lose the House. There is never a 'regardless Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #80

That is all speculation. honest.abe Nov 2019 #114

some of our house members are under water...was posted here earlier. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #158

I recall someone on DU saying that a paper bag could beat Trump. I hope that these polls wake us up. Skya Rhen Nov 2019 #61

I had one tell me that they know Biden is the better candidate but they want a progressive candidate Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #64

Well, the polls definitely back up the view that Biden can beat Trump while the others can't. Skya Rhen Nov 2019 #66

That has always been true. Some simply are determined to have a different candidate who will lose Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #81

Agreed. Some people just don't want Trump out of office as desperately as other people do. Skya Rhen Nov 2019 #99

I don't get it...do they really think the parties are the same or some such thing? Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #100

Anybody can say anything. Doesn't make it true... UncleNoel Nov 2019 #62

The polls will go up and down Turin_C3PO Nov 2019 #69

Likely voters DeminPennswoods Nov 2019 #79

Warren will not do well in PA...I lived in that state for a number of years and worked elections. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #82

I've lived here my entire life DeminPennswoods Nov 2019 #91

She needs the Black vote and is not doing well with this...you have to rack up the numbers in Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #93

This is not reflected in the polls which provide the best predictor of outcomes. Gut feelings aren't Skya Rhen Nov 2019 #95

Well right now if they keep up the socialist name tagging we will lose..... Historic NY Nov 2019 #98

I'm counting on the trend of people choosing Warren after... LAS14 Nov 2019 #102

The superbeing candidate approach. Once they get to know our candidate, she will sweep the election Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #108

Like we had to "introduce" Obama? nt LAS14 Nov 2019 #110

Warren is not Obama. He was a more transcendent figure. He had extraordinary intellectual emmaverybo Nov 2019 #117

Well, I'm moved and inspired! And a bunch of others are also. It remains to be seen... LAS14 Nov 2019 #119

Yes. I do see that Warren's supporters are both inspired and moved by her message of emmaverybo Nov 2019 #121

Not even close to being the same thing...Obama ran a middle of the road campaign with wide appeal. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #159

This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Nov 2019 #105

Without math to back it up, Kornacki's touch screens are meaningless Fiendish Thingy Nov 2019 #107

Because of M4A. Liz Warren's campaign is tone-deaf. scheming daemons Nov 2019 #109

That right there, not listening, not using political insight, is the problem. It's like M4All emmaverybo Nov 2019 #118

This polling by Kornwacky, yeah well 🙄 ... LenaBaby61 Nov 2019 #111

I'm assuming Kornacki was talking about the NYT/Siena polls which showed Warren leading in Iowa, highplainsdem Nov 2019 #113

2016 Repeat kennetha Nov 2019 #112

So to update this, this Siena/NYT poll OliverQ Nov 2019 #125

Many things to look at TheRealNorth Nov 2019 #157

That usually happens with incumbents. But this time Trump is the incumbent...I was always told in Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #162

The first vote hasn't even been cast in the primaries jberryhill Nov 2019 #151

Yep. cwydro Nov 2019 #164

Of course, but the point is that regardless of where the electorate stands a year from now the totodeinhere Nov 2019 #171

I'm mentally preparing myself for Trump to win. Many democrats want the person helpisontheway Nov 2019 #169

This is why national polls may be interesting but as we know we don't elect presidents with the totodeinhere Nov 2019 #170

Lol, I still wonder how warren or sanders will okieinpain Nov 2019 #190