Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Kornacki just discussed some scary polling on Morning Joe [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I've been hearing since April head-to-head polls don't matter. We're now at the end of 2019. In a gap smaller than the time that has elapsed, we'll likely have our nominee. It's likely in four months, we'll be beyond the point of no return with our nominee. I think this is exactly the right time to start considering head-to-head polls because, if in April, the front-runner is still losing, well we better hope to god the polls are off or will correct.
Also that article is from September. It's now almost two months outdated. Despite over a month of new data and everything, the polls still haven't budged much head-to-head.
And again, I point to 2015. At this point in 2015, Hillary had an average lead of 3 points head-to-head vs Trump.
What was her margin nationally a year later? Hm...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden