Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Kornacki just discussed some scary polling on Morning Joe [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)In fact, the article is pretty incorrect - at least recently. In the last two presidential elections, polls a year out almost certainly accurately measured the mood of the country and the race.
In an average of polls from Nov. 5th, 2015, Hillary led Trump 46% to 43%. A year later, she won the presidency with 48% of the vote to Trump's 46%. Hillary saw an increase of +2 and Trump an increase of +3 but the margin +3 for Hillary in 2015 only slightly changed.
On Nov. 5th, 2011, Obama led Romney in an average of polls 46% to 44%. A year later, Obama won the presidency with 51% of the vote to Romney's 47%. That was a +5 for Obama and +3 for Romney. However, like the margins with Trump and Hillary, they weren't dramatically off. Obama's margin over Romney a year out was +2 and he won the popular vote by +4 - a change of just two-points.
Pretty stark evidence that the nature of the race was pretty clear a year out from the election.
It's a little more muddled in 2008 but here's a list of polls I found from November, 2007:
Gallup: Obama 47, McCain 44 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama 46, McCain 43 (+3)
CNN: Obama 48, McCain 48 (--)
Zogby: Obama 47, McCain 43
So, averaging those polls out and Obama led McCain 47-45.
Obama won by a much larger margin, but, for most 2008, up until the economy cratered, the election was tracking for that type of margin.
So, there's ample evidence suggesting polls are a pretty good indicator of the nature of the race this far out - at least in the last three elections and if you go back to 2004, you also see Bush winning near-universally head-to-head, so, actually the last four presidential elections.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden