FiveThirtyEight... [View all]

[pfeiffer]

...interesting update.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/national-polls-and-state-polls-show-pretty-much-the-same-thing/

And this:

Overall, among the nine Democrats who have qualified so far for this month’s debate, the correlation between national polls and early state polls (weighted by the number of Democratic voters in each state) is .99, or nearly perfect. It seems like perceptions to the contrary derive from ignoring South Carolina (a strong state for Biden) and Nevada (strong for Biden and also Sanders’s strongest early state) and their more diverse and moderate electorates at the expense of white and liberal voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.