In some of the latest state primary polling, [View all]

[MineralMan]

Sanders has dropped to under 15% in the polling. In two states, he is polling at 13% and in one at 14%.

Why does that matter? Because it could prevent him from getting any delegates at all in those states. The Democratic Party has a 15% rule. Primary candidates who get less than 15% of the vote get no delegates at all. The delegates are assigned proportionally to the candidates who received 15% or more.

Now, this is not a statewide thing, but applies to whatever districts each state sets up as individual areas that assign delegates. It's complicated, and almost impenetrable in some states. But, you can be sure that candidates who get less than 15% of the vote, statewide, are not going to be awarded delegates anywhere near whatever percentage they got from the voters.

The other factor that is always in play is the number of delegates each state sends to the convention. The higher the state's population, the more delegates that state gets to choose, more or less. There are other factors, too, like how Democrats do in those states, compared to Republicans, but the more populous the state, the more delegates, generally.

That's why, for example, Iowa isn't nearly as important as, say Florida, when it comes to the convention delegation it sends. And then, there are states like California, New York, and Texas, which send massive delegations to the convention.

So, it's important to watch state-by-state polling with those two factors in mind. First, look at the 15% rule, and then look at the total number of delegates who will attend the convention in each state.

It's not a simple equation. Not at all.