Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(54,484 posts)

22. not at all, in 2018 it was the best online poll (lowest average error rate)

Thu Nov 14, 2019, 02:50 PM

Nov 2019

YouGov has a sample base of more than 10,000 off which they use highly sophisticated weighting mechanisms to get an accurate sample.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/upshot/online-polls-analyzing-reliability.html

snip

The online samples that fared well raise some concerns about the other online pollsters, if only by implication. YouGov, for instance, consistently fared best in the Pew test in part by using a distinctively sophisticated method of sample selection, called synthetic sampling. YouGov selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans and thus match the country’s demographics as a whole.

snip

Those that did had decent but not exceptional results. On average, online polls had an error of 5.3 percentage points in 2018 — a tally very close to their average error in 2016 and 2017, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.

YouGov, it should be noted, posted an impressive 2.5-point average error in its final 2018 polls; no other online-only firm had an average error beneath five points.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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26.0% Biden's RCP Average at an all time low. [View all] crazytown Nov 2019 OP

How about a link? I looked for this and didn't find...it saw current polls but they did not support Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #1

Never mind I found the most recent one... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #2

Here is what I found... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #3

Economist/YouGuv is a crap poll ritapria Nov 2019 #4

B- rating, so above average. thesquanderer Nov 2019 #14

They have a pool of paid consultants that they choose from...sorry...meaningless... Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #15

538 rating takes many factors into account... a B- poll is still not a bad one, regardless of... thesquanderer Nov 2019 #20

I don't agree and believe that this poll depends on who they are paying...IE their sample Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #43

lol, 'paid conultants', you really are getting creative with your non-stop tosh. You are a Celerity Nov 2019 #23

Spot on in every respect and a total beatdown Bradshaw3 Nov 2019 #30

The You/Guv final Poll during UK General Election of 2017 was .. ritapria Nov 2019 #32

not at all, in 2018 it was the best online poll (lowest average error rate) Celerity Nov 2019 #22

Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2019 #25

I didn't see a "disastrous June debate performance" from Biden emulatorloo Nov 2019 #5

+1000 Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #9

Biden's performance was "disastrous" as far the the polls were concerned. crazytown Nov 2019 #11

That's probably a good call. BannonsLiver Nov 2019 #13

He is up 10 and 11 polls in two out of the four polls and ties in the other one...I think we will be Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #16

All three of the highest polling candidates are down from a week ago. George II Nov 2019 #6

+1000 Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #8

That may be but he is still the front runner with a 5.2 lead over the rest of the field Thekaspervote Nov 2019 #7

So..... boomer_wv Nov 2019 #10

I would be happy with either Biden or Warren. nt tblue37 Nov 2019 #12

I want to win period...vote blue no matter who always. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #17

Of course, but I think those 2 are our best chance to win. I like other candidates, too. nt tblue37 Nov 2019 #21

And yet, all the others have lower poll results, neh? MineralMan Nov 2019 #18

And I posted the chart for this Graph...he is ahead in two of the 4 polls by double digits and Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #19

And less than a week later: LongtimeAZDem Nov 2019 #24

And two weeks earlier - 30 crazytown Nov 2019 #26

Biden is up 12.7 freaking points in the RCP average and up 8 points in the new YouGov poll Gothmog Nov 2019 #27

Happy Birthday Vice President Biden. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #45

He's going to need a good debate performance tonight customerserviceguy Nov 2019 #28

@JoeBiden Surges 7 Pts in One Week According to the new @TheEconomist Poll Gothmog Nov 2019 #29

Hummmm peggysue2 Nov 2019 #31

🚨 According to the updated @RealClearNews average, @JoeBiden now leads the field by 12.7%. Gothmog Nov 2019 #33

Joe Biden is in a stronger position today than when he announced Gothmog Nov 2019 #34

Nonsense crazytown Nov 2019 #35

What's nonsense? Seems pretty accurate. TidalWave46 Nov 2019 #37

How often does it have to be said, Biden needs a majority of delegates crazytown Nov 2019 #38

The 15% rule will let Biden run up the delegate count Gothmog Nov 2019 #39

Not so. crazytown Nov 2019 #41

Again, I was a delegate to the national convention Gothmog Nov 2019 #46

We are doing a hell of a lot of speculation on the eve of the debate crazytown Nov 2019 #50

All three of my kids are mad at me for supporting Biden and not Warren Gothmog Nov 2019 #51

Also... boomer_wv Nov 2019 #53

Warren is down 4 points and it is not inconceivable she get few or maybe no delegates in Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #49

And how does showing the possibility of having more voters.... TidalWave46 Nov 2019 #40

When Biden announced, beating Sanders was enough. crazytown Nov 2019 #42

That's nonsense. TidalWave46 Nov 2019 #44

It is, as Bill Clinton would say Arithmetic crazytown Nov 2019 #48

Sounds like Bernie math. NT TidalWave46 Nov 2019 #55

How so? crazytown Nov 2019 #56

Terrific! Really fine speaker and his the best launch message. emmaverybo Nov 2019 #54

'No schadenfreude will be had': Biden coasts as opponents face firing squad Gothmog Nov 2019 #47

Cannot argue with the mood of the country... Peacetrain Nov 2019 #52

That's pretty solid. NT TidalWave46 Nov 2019 #36