Giving Trump every single probable state and EV, it comes down to 3 states and we have to sweep them [View all]

[Celerity]

Furthermore, drilling down as far as I am comfortable with, it comes down to 3 cities (Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Detroit, and the African American vote in those cities).

Here is the map (obviously flipping Florida (or North Carolina, etc) to Blue changes a tonne, but I am trying to paint a worst case scenario for us by giving Trump the all lightly pink 2016 states that were not nearly as close as the 3 biggies (the infamous 78,652 votes from WI, PA, MI)



We can alter that map so that we take NH, sweep Maine and all Trump needs is to win is take even the smallest of those 3 Browns (ie. Wisconsin) and he wins 270-268.

The main way we win all 3 is via what cost us badly (along with a myriad number of other things, some related) in 2016. The A-A vote (I am a POC myself), which was weak in Philly, Milwaukee, and Detroit.

If we run no POC on the ticket, especially 2 white males, we are sorely tempting fate, as those 3 states were by far the closest of the larger states, and they have a whopping 46 EV's combined.

I cannot envision a 'no POC ticket' that will swing enough of the other states to make up for that many votes. NC will be even harder to flip with no POC. Florida too. I could see Arizona and New Hampshire flipping without a POC on the ticket, but that is not enough to win, even if we also sweep Maine and take 2nd NE district. We lose 293-245. Pull AZ away from us in that scenario and ADD BOTH WI and MI (or even WI and PA), and we STILL lose.


In summation, we can lose EVERY other truly close swing state (and ME-2 and NE-2), as shown on the map.........

and just win WI, MI, and PA (states we have NO business losing, and states that all now have Dem governors) and we BEAT TRUMP.

A massive AA turnout in Philly (Chris Matthews, a Philly boy, as soon as he saw the low turnout there in inner city Philly, said that Hillary was in huge trouble, and that was hours, hours before anyone else), Milwaukee (brilliant move having the convention there), and Detroit (my god is their election system messed up,this MUST be fixed) pretty much guarantees that. We NEED a diverse ticket IMHO to get there.