No Sanders Surge? New Quinnipiac Poll: Primary Voters Under 35 Favor Bernie By YUGE Margin

[TexasTowelie]

49. Voter contact attempts do not equate to voters.

If they contact the same person multiple times and the phone wasn't answered or rolled into voicemail, does each call count? The person contacted only gets to vote once. Does the voter contact attempt count for Bernie if they reach the voter and they indicate that they are not going to vote for Bernie?

I wouldn't make any statistical inferences without asking a lot of questions. I was a statistician most of my life so I know that data can be manipulated to support a hypothesis and I have no doubt that political campaigns are among the worst manipulators. Do you think that any of the campaigns are going to tell the public that they aren't making an effort at voter outreach? Since we don't have any data from the other campaigns about their voter contact attempts or what they consider as a voter contact attempt for comparison, the numbers are meaningless and should be considered as "spin".

At this point, I expect that the four candidates that are at the top of the polls will remain in the contest through Super Tuesday no matter what the early primary/caucus results are since they have adequate funding. It's also quite likely that they will also remain active through the primaries in the middle of March. I suspect that we will have a good idea who the nominee will be at that point, but the contest will likely be decided after the mid-Atlantic/New England primaries or we will know that it will be a brokered convention. Being in first place won't be enough--if Bernie doesn't have a substantial lead, then it is unlikely that the superdelegates will favor him over the other candidates when it comes time for the second ballot at the convention.