Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(54,450 posts)

43. Oh, I think we will win NH probably for sure, and have a good shot at AZ

Sun Mar 24, 2019, 03:46 AM

Mar 2019

The whole point to my OP was to show a worst case swing state scenario and yet show we could lose EVERY actual swing swing state (no way can I see us losing NV, CO, VA, they are past purple and are now solid light blue) that was carried by Trump (and I tossed in NH as well) and yet still win as long as we win MI, WI, and PA, all of which have been Dem at POTUS level for decades until 2016.

Pre 2016, the last time Wisconsin went for a Rethug was 1980, Michigan, 1988, and Pennsylvania, 1988. That's 92 total years combined of Democratic winning at POTUS level.

The massive drop of in A-A votes was a big, big reason we lost those 3 (those numbers and what caused it I discussed in great depth here). https://www.democraticunderground.com/128736610#post18

My conclusion is that we should strive to have a diverse ticket or we may run into those same issues again, with the added threat of increased voter suppression to boot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

66 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Giving Trump every single probable state and EV, it comes down to 3 states and we have to sweep them [View all] Celerity Mar 2019 OP

These and... Vogon_Glory Mar 2019 #1

Oh, I am not at all saying many other states are not in play, they are Celerity Mar 2019 #2

Thing may have changed but last month Trump's approval Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2019 #49

2 centrist white men, with the top of the ticket being 86 at the end of his terms is not Celerity Mar 2019 #50

Both options have weaknesses. This particular team includes Laura PourMeADrink Mar 2019 #54

we will win arizona before we win texas dsc Mar 2019 #3

Perhaps we'll luck out and win both Vogon_Glory Mar 2019 #5

Trump barely won Wisconsin & Michigan Jarqui Mar 2019 #4

Many miles to go until then, and Biden isn't even in the race yet. When he enters many other Celerity Mar 2019 #6

There is a long way to go but I like our position for those states Jarqui Mar 2019 #9

The poster was talking about Biden vs Trump and you R B Garr Mar 2019 #28

Yes, Biden could sweep those states, and it was a huge discredit R B Garr Mar 2019 #29

you misrepresent what I said Celerity Mar 2019 #30

None of that would matter if it was Biden v Trump, R B Garr Mar 2019 #31

Other candidates will, at some point, have a go at him, especially if he is the front-runner. Celerity Mar 2019 #32

That primary part would be over if it was Trump v Biden. R B Garr Mar 2019 #33

Again with the misrepresenting of what I said, and also some strange attempt at projection. Celerity Mar 2019 #35

Again. The poster you responded to was talking about R B Garr Mar 2019 #36

the only centering of Bernie came from you, you are completely trying to turn it into yet another Celerity Mar 2019 #37

No, you. Your post, you. The poster you responded to R B Garr Mar 2019 #38

again, and again and again with the misrepresentation and the attempts at Sanders-centric deflection Celerity Mar 2019 #39

Again and again and again, and again, I noted your R B Garr Mar 2019 #40

Greater turnout of POC is key, I agree. Those aren't the only 3 states that will flip. Garrett78 Mar 2019 #7

at this moment, barring an implosion (surely possible) by the orange rotter Celerity Mar 2019 #10

Separate from your point (that is fully accurate) CincyDem Mar 2019 #8

Thee senate is tough. I don't think any senator from a state that has a GOP governor should run Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #15

Brown is not running and the other states are likely not problems. karynnj Mar 2019 #24

They have GOP governors. Neither are my first choice but if we lose a Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #25

I totally disagree. StevieM Mar 2019 #11

you completely miss my point, I never said those other states were not in play Celerity Mar 2019 #12

We did not win any of those states last time or in 12 either. Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #14

Our best hope is not to embrace the notion that we can only win with 277 EVs. StevieM Mar 2019 #16

It is the minimum and our blue wall. I hope for more. Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #21

I posted a map earlier and that was my conclusion also, Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #13

Do we know that they didn't turn out? ucrdem Mar 2019 #17

Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots Celerity Mar 2019 #18

hey that's some impressive research! ucrdem Mar 2019 #19

yes, there are so many reasons for the drop Celerity Mar 2019 #20

PA does not have early voting Freddie Mar 2019 #51

Well, that's another barrier. ucrdem Mar 2019 #57

Well done Tom Rinaldo Mar 2019 #22

Be mindful of damage done with the Russian trolling of black millennials during the 2016 campaign allgood33 Mar 2019 #23

Excellent analysis exboyfil Mar 2019 #26

Thanks for the links and articles. BlueWI Mar 2019 #27

oh, wow, Mandela Barnes looks so impressive, he absolutely has a big future in our party!! Celerity Mar 2019 #41

Thanks for your thoughts! BlueWI Mar 2019 #55

We will win BlueFlorida Mar 2019 #34

Oh, I think we will win NH probably for sure, and have a good shot at AZ Celerity Mar 2019 #43

Wisconsin Poiuyt Mar 2019 #42

What happened over the decades to turn WI so reddish? Celerity Mar 2019 #44

Something similar is true of Michigan. susanna Mar 2019 #46

before the orange turd picked the man married to Mother as VP, I was thinking Walker Celerity Mar 2019 #48

Gerrymandering Poiuyt Mar 2019 #52

Scott Walker is such a fuckstick Celerity Mar 2019 #53

I did not reply originally, susanna Apr 2019 #61

They lost Good paying manufacturing jobs , Janesville GM closed in 08. Demsrule86 Mar 2019 #56

This just infuriates me. susanna Mar 2019 #47

Interestingly, the same states that 'won' it for him last time. susanna Mar 2019 #45

Hillary won Minnesota by 1.5% with 46.4% of the vote Awsi Dooger Mar 2019 #58

I agree as to the majority of your points, but can you envision a scenario Celerity Mar 2019 #60

Luckily, with a crap candidate, we only lost those three states by less than 80K votes... SKKY Mar 2019 #59

So we should find a young black man crazytown Apr 2019 #62

Interesting analysis. Two questions... thesquanderer Apr 2019 #63

IF he were to get the nomination, I would hope he would chose Celerity Apr 2019 #65

Which is why all of us need to continue to support the National Popular Vote Compact PatrickforO Apr 2019 #64

+1 Celerity Apr 2019 #66