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Democratic Primaries

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BlueMTexpat

(15,493 posts)
Sat Dec 14, 2019, 12:56 PM Dec 2019

Centrists say this is proof Sanders or Warren can't win. They're wrong [View all]

For some, Corbyn’s defeat shows that the Democratic party should elect a moderate. But we should be careful about drawing that conclusion.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/sanders-warren-uk-elections

After summarizing some of the points made by those pushing the meme that it is only centrists who can win in the US, this article continues ...

...
But most importantly, all elections are still primarily national rather than global. The British election had its own, partly unique, issues and candidates. First and foremost, the election was about Brexit, an issue irrelevant to the US electorate. Also, Corbyn was an extremely controversial candidate. While very popular within the (new) party base, and among millennials, 61% of Brits had a negative opinion of Corbyn, which included particularly older white men, who vote in large numbers. This unpopularity was only partly related to his “hard left” platform; issues such as his weak stance against antisemitism and his non-position on Brexit didn’t help either. To be fair, Johnson isn’t popular either, but he is much less unpopular than Corbyn.
...
First, unpopular candidates can win elections – a lesson we should already have drawn in 2016. It doesn’t matter whether a majority of the population dislikes you, but that a majority of the voters likes you. Trump’s base might be small, but it is mobilized and united.

Second, internal divisions, over candidates and policies, will harm both support and turnout. While Corbyn has a pretty strong grip on the party membership, which is why he can probably stay on to oversee his own succession, he has been involved in an ongoing and public conflict with much of his parliamentary party. Moreover, the party was internally divided over key issues, most notably Brexit. This all meant that the Labour party contested the elections with an unclear profile. Given the divisions within the Democratic party, and the open animosity between donors and supporters of both “moderate” and “radical” candidates, there is a serious risk that this could harm the Democrats in 2020, too.

Third, the electoral system is key to any successful electoral campaign. Plurality systems are extremely disproportional. In Thursday’s election the Tories got one seat for every 38,304 votes, while Labour needed 50,649 votes for each seat – the numbers for the Liberal Democrats and Greens were 331,226 and 857,513, respectively. Moreover, Corbyn’s “dramatic” result last night was only 3% lower than the 35.2% that won Tony Blair his third election in 2005. The US system is even less democratic, given that the electoral college trumps the popular vote.

Fourth, and most importantly, campaigns matter. Yes, Labour had fantastic short videos, and an incredibly detailed and elaborate election manifesto, but its campaign missed a clear focus and target – obviously, in large part because Corbyn was unwilling to take a clear position on the key issue of the election. In sharp contrast, the Tories had a clear message (“Vote to deliver Brexit; vote to respect the referendum”), however problematic in reality, and spent much of their money on Facebook in the last week of the campaign, when many voters decide whether and who to vote. The Trump campaign has been spending millions of dollars on Facebook for the last year, pushing a very similar message – in the language of its leader, “DEMOCRATS WANT TO STEAL THE ELECTION”. ...


****
This is definitely worth a read.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
59 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Corbyn's Defeat Is a Warning Sign to the Left bucolic_frolic Dec 2019 #1
Nah. This isn't about the 1968 generation at all. KPN Dec 2019 #11
What society wants bucolic_frolic Dec 2019 #16
What do you think the Democratic left is? KPN Dec 2019 #31
You vastly assume I know what you're talking about bucolic_frolic Dec 2019 #32
The UK election BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #35
In order to win a general, we need a moderate for the states that are must win states...MI, Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #2
How did the Dem moderate candidate do in those states in 2016? nt Doremus Dec 2019 #6
She was destroyed by the GOP ...had nothing to do with right or left...but her emails... Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #8
Hard for me to understand, gab13by13 Dec 2019 #10
+1! KPN Dec 2019 #13
Bernie was never vetted and would have lost in 16 (general) and will lose in 20 as well. We Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #14
have a very hard time seeing Sanders win 2016 stopdiggin Dec 2019 #15
The country is center left. I don't believe Sanders would have won in 16. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #44
In the GE, she was also tripped by the extreme left NYMinute Dec 2019 #41
I will never forgive them for this. I despise Stein and all her minions. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #45
I've been hearing this since 1988. It's been tested a number of times. Gore1FL Dec 2019 #20
No it hasn't and if there was an appetitie for the left...it would show up in the states and the Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #27
OK let's ignore every election for the past 40 years and pretend you are right. nt Gore1FL Dec 2019 #33
I am not ignoring past elections . We are winning with moderates and that is reality. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #40
And it only took a lame duck president with a 26 % approval rate and a failing economy. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #43
The data doesn't back your claims. But feel free to make the same mistake over and over. Gore1FL Dec 2019 #46
It's a campaign narrative. Little more. TidalWave46 Dec 2019 #3
Only Sanders can lose worse than McGovern nt NYMinute Dec 2019 #42
We certainly should not over read the UK judeling Dec 2019 #4
UK politics are hard to directly compare to.ours, but Corbyn's support Dark n Stormy Knight Dec 2019 #5
Blowback from U.K. election burns Warren, Sanders Gothmog Dec 2019 #7
Fear based speculation that omits critical facts Fiendish Thingy Dec 2019 #9
"All the top tier candidates can beat Trump, and don't have that vulnerability." stopdiggin Dec 2019 #19
So not true...you have to be able to win the rust belt and Warren, Sanders won't end of story. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #22
Last poll I saw showed Sanders beating Trump by more than Biden in 2/3 Rust Belt states Fiendish Thingy Dec 2019 #34
That is just not true...abd he doesn't do well with AA voters Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #36
Latest polls show Biden losing support with AA voters in SC nt Fiendish Thingy Dec 2019 #52
Polls show no such thing actually... Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #58
Obama won now didnt he? Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #39
Obama was 20+ points behind Hillary in December 2007 Fiendish Thingy Dec 2019 #51
There were only two candidates...and AA wanted to support him if he could win...and they like both Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #59
I very specifically agree BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #47
Washington Post-It's easy to see how Trump can win reelection Gothmog Dec 2019 #53
Other than your own lens, what specifically leads you to allege fear? LanternWaste Dec 2019 #57
The UK election was about Brexit, not the whole Tory program. Odoreida Dec 2019 #12
You are completely misreadinng this. Corbyn ran on Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #38
Warren cant win because people dont like to be told "I know what you need, you dont" oldsoftie Dec 2019 #17
What I don't like about Warren repeatedly contending that no one likes his or her plan is that emmaverybo Dec 2019 #54
I have no idea how anyone can set aside Gillum's 46% and Abrams' 42% Awsi Dooger Dec 2019 #18
You are exactly right which is why I am lukewarm about impeachment. Demsrule86 Dec 2019 #37
Here are some eye popping numbers that say Dems are looking at the more centurist view Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #21
Forget all that the proof is in the swing states ! Didya hear Biden is leading dump in UniteFightBack Dec 2019 #23
Untapped votes are people under 35 mjvpi Dec 2019 #24
I have a lot of reasons why Sanders and Warren can't win, and none of them involve the UK LongtimeAZDem Dec 2019 #25
Yeah...no....I'm not going to take the Guardian as my source for..anything AncientGeezer Dec 2019 #26
Welcome to America! (we're NOT British!) tberry65 Dec 2019 #28
With a president like we elected, you might not want to throw stones LongtimeAZDem Dec 2019 #30
See my response below. BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #50
lol fail ! stonecutter357 Dec 2019 #29
lol, not! BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #48
Having read through the BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #49
It seems that is usually the case. redqueen Dec 2019 #55
... BlueMTexpat Dec 2019 #56
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