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Democratic Primaries
Showing Original Post only (View all)Centrists say this is proof Sanders or Warren can't win. They're wrong [View all]
For some, Corbyns defeat shows that the Democratic party should elect a moderate. But we should be careful about drawing that conclusion.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/sanders-warren-uk-elections
After summarizing some of the points made by those pushing the meme that it is only centrists who can win in the US, this article continues ...
...
But most importantly, all elections are still primarily national rather than global. The British election had its own, partly unique, issues and candidates. First and foremost, the election was about Brexit, an issue irrelevant to the US electorate. Also, Corbyn was an extremely controversial candidate. While very popular within the (new) party base, and among millennials, 61% of Brits had a negative opinion of Corbyn, which included particularly older white men, who vote in large numbers. This unpopularity was only partly related to his hard left platform; issues such as his weak stance against antisemitism and his non-position on Brexit didnt help either. To be fair, Johnson isnt popular either, but he is much less unpopular than Corbyn.
...
First, unpopular candidates can win elections a lesson we should already have drawn in 2016. It doesnt matter whether a majority of the population dislikes you, but that a majority of the voters likes you. Trumps base might be small, but it is mobilized and united.
Second, internal divisions, over candidates and policies, will harm both support and turnout. While Corbyn has a pretty strong grip on the party membership, which is why he can probably stay on to oversee his own succession, he has been involved in an ongoing and public conflict with much of his parliamentary party. Moreover, the party was internally divided over key issues, most notably Brexit. This all meant that the Labour party contested the elections with an unclear profile. Given the divisions within the Democratic party, and the open animosity between donors and supporters of both moderate and radical candidates, there is a serious risk that this could harm the Democrats in 2020, too.
Third, the electoral system is key to any successful electoral campaign. Plurality systems are extremely disproportional. In Thursdays election the Tories got one seat for every 38,304 votes, while Labour needed 50,649 votes for each seat the numbers for the Liberal Democrats and Greens were 331,226 and 857,513, respectively. Moreover, Corbyns dramatic result last night was only 3% lower than the 35.2% that won Tony Blair his third election in 2005. The US system is even less democratic, given that the electoral college trumps the popular vote.
Fourth, and most importantly, campaigns matter. Yes, Labour had fantastic short videos, and an incredibly detailed and elaborate election manifesto, but its campaign missed a clear focus and target obviously, in large part because Corbyn was unwilling to take a clear position on the key issue of the election. In sharp contrast, the Tories had a clear message (Vote to deliver Brexit; vote to respect the referendum), however problematic in reality, and spent much of their money on Facebook in the last week of the campaign, when many voters decide whether and who to vote. The Trump campaign has been spending millions of dollars on Facebook for the last year, pushing a very similar message in the language of its leader, DEMOCRATS WANT TO STEAL THE ELECTION. ...
****
This is definitely worth a read.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Centrists say this is proof Sanders or Warren can't win. They're wrong [View all]
BlueMTexpat
Dec 2019
OP
In order to win a general, we need a moderate for the states that are must win states...MI,
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#2
She was destroyed by the GOP ...had nothing to do with right or left...but her emails...
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#8
Bernie was never vetted and would have lost in 16 (general) and will lose in 20 as well. We
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#14
No it hasn't and if there was an appetitie for the left...it would show up in the states and the
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#27
OK let's ignore every election for the past 40 years and pretend you are right. nt
Gore1FL
Dec 2019
#33
I am not ignoring past elections . We are winning with moderates and that is reality.
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#40
And it only took a lame duck president with a 26 % approval rate and a failing economy.
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#43
The data doesn't back your claims. But feel free to make the same mistake over and over.
Gore1FL
Dec 2019
#46
UK politics are hard to directly compare to.ours, but Corbyn's support
Dark n Stormy Knight
Dec 2019
#5
"All the top tier candidates can beat Trump, and don't have that vulnerability."
stopdiggin
Dec 2019
#19
So not true...you have to be able to win the rust belt and Warren, Sanders won't end of story.
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#22
Last poll I saw showed Sanders beating Trump by more than Biden in 2/3 Rust Belt states
Fiendish Thingy
Dec 2019
#34
There were only two candidates...and AA wanted to support him if he could win...and they like both
Demsrule86
Dec 2019
#59
Warren cant win because people dont like to be told "I know what you need, you dont"
oldsoftie
Dec 2019
#17
What I don't like about Warren repeatedly contending that no one likes his or her plan is that
emmaverybo
Dec 2019
#54
Here are some eye popping numbers that say Dems are looking at the more centurist view
Thekaspervote
Dec 2019
#21
Forget all that the proof is in the swing states ! Didya hear Biden is leading dump in
UniteFightBack
Dec 2019
#23
I have a lot of reasons why Sanders and Warren can't win, and none of them involve the UK
LongtimeAZDem
Dec 2019
#25
Yeah...no....I'm not going to take the Guardian as my source for..anything
AncientGeezer
Dec 2019
#26