Centrists say this is proof Sanders or Warren can't win. They're wrong

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I have no idea how anyone can set aside Gillum's 46% and Abrams' 42%

As in 46% of exit polling Floridians saying Gillum was too liberal for the state, and 42% of exit polling Georgians the same toward Abrams.

Those are not foreign elections. They are not in hard right states. Those are unfathomable numbers. I have never seen anything like it since studying political math beginning in 1992. Those numbers were attached to 2 of our nominees in a cycle with a heavy pro Democratic slant. We will not enjoy that type of slant again in 2020.

The socialism tag is mostly silent right now. That is hardly a coincidence. Republicans are saving it so it is not worn out. They will bombard our nominee with that word, no matter who it is.

They have a far easier time with Warren and obviously Sanders. I'm not saying it's impossible those two could win. But Trump would probably have to retreat to his late 2017 approval level in the high 30s. That simply is not likely to happen.

I would expect his approval number to bump toward the mid 40s once impeachment is concluded. The senate going last is a massive, massive, massive advantage for him. That is not being fully recognized by the public or media. It is like having the second political convention. The bump is always more decisive than estimated beforehand. Trump will control the dialog in the senate. It will be a shameless framing of what took place. Many Americans will emerge from the senate hearing believing Trump has been vindicated. He will shout and tweet that dozens of times every day. Witch hunt and wasted time and all the rest.

I am merely trying to prepare others for the inevitable. I have an excellent grasp toward projecting situational realities, since I'm not caught up in day to day specifics. Those who follow every detail have overwhelming tendency to get stuck in today.

Once Trump emerges from impeachment, we are running against an incumbent again. I say again only because somehow that reality has been ignored or downplayed. Nobody wants to treat Trump as true incumbent or recognize all the advantages of incumbency. Only those of us who don't pay attention to trivial day to day developments fully understood since November 2016 that we would be facing an incumbent in November 2020.

I already heard the argument here in Florida that nominating from the left with Gillum was incredibly wise. It was a bold move that would energize the base, as opposed to the blase moderates who lost against Rick Scott in 2010 and 2014. Meanwhile those moderates lost by razor thin margin as underdogs in midterm cycles that heavily favored the Republicans. Andrew Gillum blew a race a favorite in a cycle with heavy tilt toward Democrats. It should have been impossible to lose that race given the situational landscape yet someone from the Sanders wing accomplished it, and almost certainly took Bill Nelson down with him. Cubans were gullible to the socialism tag on Gillum and dumped on Nelson as well.